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Volatility of Exchange Rate and Export Growth in Pakistan: The Structure and Interdependence in Regional Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Khalid Mustafa

    (university of Karachi, Karachi.)

  • Mohammed Nishat

    (Institute of Business Administration, Karachi.)

Abstract

The study empirically investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on exports growth between Pakistan and leading trade partners. The countries are selected to determine the bilateral relationship between Pakistan and the other countries under various regional economic blocks such as SAARC, ASEAN, European, and Asia-Pacific regions. Cointegration and Error Correction techniques are used to establish the empirical relationship between exchange rate volatility and exports growth, using quarterly data from 1991:3 to 2004:2. The results indicate that the volatility of exchange rate has negative and significant effects both in the long run and short run with major trade partners, namely, UK and US. A similar pattern was observed in case of Australia, Bangladesh, and Singapore, where the volume of trade with Pakistan is comparatively consistent and less volatile. The relationship between exports growth and exchange rate volatility for India and Pakistan is observed only in the long-run perspective. However, of countries like New Zealand and Malaysia, no empirical relationship is observed between export growth and exchange rate volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Khalid Mustafa & Mohammed Nishat, 2004. "Volatility of Exchange Rate and Export Growth in Pakistan: The Structure and Interdependence in Regional Markets," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 813-828.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:43:y:2004:i:4:p:813-828
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ronald Miranda & Gabriela Mordecki, 2015. "Real exchange rate volatility impact on exports: A comparative study 1990-2013," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 15-18, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    2. Ana María Iregui & Luis Fernando Melo V. & María Teresa Ramírez, 2013. "Efecto de la volatilidad y del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real sobre la actividad de las empresas en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 801, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Khalil Ahmed & Muhammad Qasim & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2017. "Impact of Exchange Rate on Exports in Case of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 6(2), pages 98-102, June.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Javed Iqbal & Saqib Ullah Khan, 2017. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on the commodity trade between Pakistan and the US," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 161-187, May.
    5. Hira Mujahid & Shaista Alam, 2014. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Demand and Price Volatility in Pakistan: Co Integration Approach for Compensation Hypothesis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(6), pages 744-754, June.
    6. Zakee SAADAT & Dawood MAMOON, 2016. "Destination EU and USA: Improving Export Potential of Pakistan by Trading with India," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 659-669, December.
    7. Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo, 2021. "The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 18(2), pages 57-81, Julio-Dic.
    8. P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Growth in India: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 43828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Shaista Alam & Qazi Masood Ahmed & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2018. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Pakistan’s Bilateral Exports to Major Recipients," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(2), pages 328-341, April.
    10. Rabia Latif & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2016. "The Determinants of Pakistan Exports of Textile: An Integrated Demand and Supply Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 191-210.
    11. Muhammad Naveed Jamil & Abdul Rasheed & Adnan Maqbool & Zeeshan Mukhtar, 2023. "Cross-cultural study the macro variables and its impact on exchange rate regimes," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Alam, Shaista & Ahmed, Qazi Masood, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Aggregate Exports Demand through ARDL Framework: An Experience from Pakistan Economy," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, February.
    13. Ahmed Pirzada, 2019. "Do exchange rate shocks matter for Pakistan's export performance?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 19/711, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    14. Abdul Jalil Khan & Parvez Azim & Shabib Haider Syed, 2014. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: A Panel Study on Pakistan’s Trading Partners," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 31-66, Jan-June.
    15. Javed Iqbal & Sabahat Aziz & Misbah Nosheen, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on US–Pakistan trade flows: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 225-255, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export; Exchange Rate; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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