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“Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh”

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  • Md Shoaib Ahmed, Shoaib

Abstract

This is a study to investigate the exchange rate volatility and it impacts on international trade growth: evidence from Bangladesh. To establish the empirical relationship between exchange rate volatility and impact on international trade growth in Bangladesh, different quantitative techniques are used by considering the data from May 2003 to December 2008. In the analysis co-integration and error correction methods have been used to do the analysis the relationship between exchange rate volatility and international trade growth in Bangladesh. From the investigation, the result shows that the exchange rate volatility has a negative and major effect both in short run and long run with Western European and North American countries. There is a negative and significant relationship has been observed between exchange rate volatility and the international trade growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19466.

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Date of creation: 26 Jan 2009
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Publication status: Published in Center for Socio Economic Research, ASA University Review 01.Volume(2009): pp. 67-79
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19466

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Keywords: Key words: Co-integration; Error Correction; Exchange Rate; Volatility; Export growth; Trade growth.;

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  1. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-95, August.
  2. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
  3. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
  4. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-12, November.
  5. Christopher F Baum, Mustafa Caglayan, Neslihan Ozkan, 2001. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume of Trade Flows: An Empirical Analysis Employing High-Frequency Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 85, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Baldwin, Richard & Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-54, November.
  7. Warner, Dennis & Kreinin, Mordechai E, 1983. "Determinants of International Trade Flows," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 96-104, February.
  8. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
  9. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August.
  10. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May.
  11. Padma Gotur, 1985. "Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: Some Further Evidence (Effets de l'instabilité des taux de change sur le commerce mondial: nouvelles constatations) (Efectos de la inestabilidad de los," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(3), pages 475-512, September.
  12. Bailey, Martin J. & Tavlas, George S. & Ulan, Michael, 1987. "The impact of exchange-rate volatility on export growth: Some theoretical considerations and empirical results," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 225-243.
  13. Cushman, David O., 1988. "U.S. bilateral trade flows and exchange risk during the floating period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3-4), pages 317-330, May.
  14. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
  15. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
  16. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September.
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