Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Growth in India: An Empirical Investigation
AbstractThis paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on the real exports in India using the ARDL bounds testing procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Using annual time series data, the empirical analyses has been carried out for the period 1970 to 2011. The study results confirm that real exports are cointegrated with exchange rate volatility, real exchange rate, gross domestic product and foreign economic activity. Our findings indicate that the exchange rate volatility has significant negative impact on real exports both in the short-run and long-run, implying that higher exchange rate fluctuation tends to reduce real exports in India. Besides, the real exchange rate has negative short-run and positive long-run effects on real exports. The empirical results reveal that GDP has a positive and significant impact on India’s real exports in the long-run, but the impact turns out to be insignificant in the short-run. In addition, the foreign economic activity exerts significant negative and positive impact on real exports in the short-run and long-run, respectively.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43828.
Date of creation: 15 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Exchange rate volatility; Real exports; India; ARDL-UECM; Cointegration; CUSUM; CUSUMQ;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F1 - International Economics - - Trade
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Qian, Ying & Varangis, Panos, 1994. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Hinder Export Growth?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 371-96.
- Stilianos Fountas & Donal Bredin, 1998.
"Exchange rate volatility and exports: the case of Ireland,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(5), pages 301-304.
- Stilianos Fountas & Donal Bredin, 1997. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: The Case of Ireland," Working Papers 16, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 1997.
- Serge Rey, 2006. "Effective Exchange Rate Volatility And Mena Countries Exports To The Eu," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 23-54, December.
- Elif Akbostanci, 2004. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance: The Turkish J-Curve," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(5), pages 57-73, September.
- Gilberto Libanio, 2005.
"Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence,"
Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 15(3), pages 145-176, September.
- Gilberto A. Libanio, 2004. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence," Textos para DiscussÃ£o Cedeplar-UFMG td228, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
- WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2006. "Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Changes: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 611-626, January.
- Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Choong, Chee-Keong, 2010. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on World and Intra-trade Flows of SAARC Countries," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 67-86.
- Broll, Udo, 1994. "Foreign Production and Forward Markets," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(62), pages 1-6, June.
- Baron, David P, 1976. "Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the Pricing of Exports," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(3), pages 425-38, September.
- Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
- Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
- Udo Broll & Bernhard Eckwert, 1999. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 178-185, July.
- Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
- Chit, Myint Moe & Rizov, Marian & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2008.
"Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies,"
9014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, 02.
- Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu, 2010.
"Exchange rate volatility and export trade in Nigeria: an empirical investigation,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1071-1084.
- Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Trade in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 13490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Feb 2009.
- Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
- Glauco De vita & Andrew Abbott, 2004. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on UK Exports to EU Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(1), pages 62-81, 02.
- Wang, Kai-Li & Barrett, Christopher B., 2002. "A New Look At The Trade Volume Effects Of Real Exchange Rate Risk," Working Papers 14751, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
- Cushman, David O., 1988. "U.S. bilateral trade flows and exchange risk during the floating period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3-4), pages 317-330, May.
- Aristotelous, Kyriacos, 2001. "Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate regime, and trade volume: evidence from the UK-US export function (1889-1999)," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 87-94, July.
- Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.