IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pia/review/v8y2017i2n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Did the Exchange Rate Floor Prevent Deflation in the Czech Republic?

Author

Listed:
  • Francesca Caselli

Abstract

To fight deflationary pressures at the zero lower bound, in November 2013, the Czech National Bank (CNB) introduced a one-sided floor on the exchange rate, as an additional monetary policy instrument. This paper investigates the impact of the FX floor on inflation in the Czech Republic, by comparing actual inflation with counterfactuals in the absence of the exchange rate floor. Three different empirical strategies are implemented: an event study, difference-in-difference regressions and a synthetic control method. The empirical results provide evidence that the exchange rate was effective in fighting deflationary pressures and prevented inflation from going into negative territory. The magnitude of the effect ranges between 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points. The results are robust to different econometric specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesca Caselli, 2017. "Did the Exchange Rate Floor Prevent Deflation in the Czech Republic?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 8(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:pia:review:v:8:y:2017:i:2:n:1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rei.unipg.it/rei/article/view/252
    Download Restriction: Requires registration. Users must be registered and log in to access full text
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    2. Francesca Caselli, 2017. "Did the Exchange Rate Floor Prevent Deflation in the Czech Republic?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 8(2).
    3. Daude, Christian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Nagengast, Arne J., 2016. "On the effectiveness of exchange rate interventions in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 239-261.
    4. Fatum, Rasmus & Pedersen, Jesper, 2009. "Real-time effects of central bank intervention in the euro market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 11-20, June.
    5. Svensson, Lars-E-O, 2001. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 277-312, February.
    6. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora, 2011. "Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield Against Appreciation Winds?," IMF Working Papers 2011/165, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Bibek Adhikari & Romain Duval & Bingjie Hu & Prakash Loungani, 2018. "Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies using the Synthetic Control Method," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 879-910, September.
    8. Ali Alichi & Mr. Jaromir Benes & Mr. Joshua Felman & Irene Feng & Charles Freedman & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Evan C Tanner & David Vávra & Hou Wang, 2015. "Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking: Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic," IMF Working Papers 2015/074, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    10. Adam Geršl & Tomáš Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
    11. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    12. Ghosh, Atish R., 1992. "Is it signalling? Exchange intervention and the dollar-Deutschemark rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 201-220, May.
    13. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long‐run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 593-611, May.
    14. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    15. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Rasmus Fatum & Pavel Vacek, 2013. "Do Sales of Foreign Exchange Reserves Lead to Currency Appreciation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 867-890, August.
    16. Adler, Gustavo & Lisack, Noëmie & Mano, Rui C., 2019. "Unveiling the effects of foreign exchange intervention: A panel approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2014. "Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method," IZA Discussion Papers 8162, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Hernán Rincón & Jorge Toro, 2010. "Are Capital Controls and Central Bank Intervention Effective?," Borradores de Economia 7622, Banco de la Republica.
    19. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    20. Mr. Plamen K Iossifov & Jiri Podpiera, 2014. "Are Non-Euro Area EU Countries Importing Low Inflation from the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 2014/191, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Eduardo Cavallo & Sebastian Galiani & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano, 2013. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1549-1561, December.
    22. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Czech Experience," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 537-549, December.
    23. Chamon, Marcos & Garcia, Márcio & Souza, Laura, 2017. "FX interventions in Brazil: A synthetic control approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 157-168.
    24. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, September.
    25. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2017. "Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980s," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 308-364, June.
    26. David H. Autor, 2003. "Outsourcing at Will: The Contribution of Unjust Dismissal Doctrine to the Growth of Employment Outsourcing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-42, January.
    27. Lubomír Lízal & Jirí Schwarz, 2013. "Foreign exchange interventions as an (un)conventional monetary policy tool," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 127-143, Bank for International Settlements.
    28. Adler, Gustavo & Mano, Rui C., 2021. "The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Concepts and Measurement," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    29. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    30. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
    31. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Campos, Nauro & Moretti, Luigi, 2014. "Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Co," CEPR Discussion Papers 9968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Paolo Cavallino, 2019. "Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Intervention," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 127-170, April.
    33. Kevin Clinton & Tibor Hlédik & Mr. Tomás Holub & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Hou Wang, 2017. "Czech Magic: Implementing Inflation-Forecast Targeting at the CNB," IMF Working Papers 2017/021, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    35. Heilmann, Kilian, 2016. "Does political conflict hurt trade? Evidence from consumer boycotts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 179-191.
    36. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:867-890 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Herman Kamil, 2008. "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? The Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 2008/088, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Caselli, 2017. "Did the Exchange Rate Floor Prevent Deflation in the Czech Republic?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 8(2).
    2. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Czech Experience," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 537-549, December.
    3. Adler, Gustavo & Chang, Kyun Suk & Wang, Zijiao, 2021. "Patterns of foreign exchange intervention under inflation targeting," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(4).
    4. Marek A. Dąbrowski & Łukasz Kwiatkowski & Justyna Wróblewska, 2020. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Variability in Central and Eastern European Countries: Evidence from Structural Bayesian MSH-VAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(4), pages 369-412, December.
    5. Francesca Caselli & Matilde Faralli & Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza, 2021. "On the Benefits of Repaying," IMF Working Papers 2021/233, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Janus, Jakub, 2021. "Does the interest parity puzzle hold for Central and Eastern European economies?," MPRA Paper 107558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Freund, Caroline & Mulabdic, Alen & Ruta, Michele, 2022. "Is 3D printing a threat to global trade? The trade effects you didn't hear about," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Hampl, Mojmir & Havranek, Tomas, 2018. "Central Bank Capital as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," EconStor Preprints 176828, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "A new approach to estimation of actively managed component of foreign exchange reserves," MPRA Paper 95280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2021. "A novel approach to the estimation of an actively managed component of foreign exchange reserves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 83-95.
    11. Mr. David J Hofman & Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Mr. Pragyan Deb & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Umang Rawat & Itaru Yamamoto, 2020. "Intervention Under Inflation Targeting--When Could It Make Sense?," IMF Working Papers 2020/009, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek, 2020. "Central Bank Equity as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(1), pages 49-68, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adler, Gustavo & Lisack, Noëmie & Mano, Rui C., 2019. "Unveiling the effects of foreign exchange intervention: A panel approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 21427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Adler, Gustavo & Chang, Kyun Suk & Wang, Zijiao, 2021. "Patterns of foreign exchange intervention under inflation targeting," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(4).
    5. Adler, Gustavo & Mano, Rui C., 2021. "The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Concepts and Measurement," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "FX intervention to stabilize or manipulate the exchange rate? Inference from profitability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Marcel Fratzscher & Tobias Heidland & Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Intervention: A New Database," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(4), pages 852-884, December.
    8. Zineddine Alla, 2017. "Optimal policies in International Macroeconomics," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6kvjk9o32n8, Sciences Po.
    9. Fratzscher, Marcel & Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Stöhr, Tobias, 2019. "When Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective? Evidence from 33 Countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 0(1), pages 132-156.
    10. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2020. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 693-719, September.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6kvjk9o32n8m88c6de3gc0gltj is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 0. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-27.
    13. Suman S. Basu & Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Pablo E. Winant, 2018. "Managing Capital Outflows with Limited Reserves," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(2), pages 333-374, June.
    14. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Garcia-Cicco Javier & Bucacos Elizabeth & Mello Miguel, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Interventions and Foreign Shocks: The case of Uruguay," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4657, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    16. Luna Santos, Francisco, 2021. "Comparing the impact of discretionary and pre-announced central bank interventions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    17. Milan Nedeljkovic & Christian Saborowski, 2019. "The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives‐Based Intervention," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1455-1490, September.
    18. Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Iovino, Luigi, 2018. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Dennis Essers & Stefaan Ide, 2017. "The IMF and precautionary lending : An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the flexible credit line," Working Paper Research 323, National Bank of Belgium.
    20. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Ruy Lama & Juan Pablo Medina Guzman, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Intervention under Policy Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2016/067, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1187-1208, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange interventions; Exchange rate; Synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pia:review:v:8:y:2017:i:2:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ubaldo Pizzoli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deperit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.