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Consumption Volatility and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

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  • Roméo Tédongap

Abstract

I derive and test multi-horizon implications of a consumption-based equilibrium model featuring fluctuating expected growth and volatility. My setup allows consumption dynamics to be estimated jointly with covariance risk prices in a single-stage generalized method of moment, and then inferences from asset pricing tests reflect uncertainty coming from factor estimation. I show that changes in consumption volatility are the key driver for explaining major asset pricing anomalies across risk horizons, while other factors play no or a secondary role. Value stocks and past long-term losers pay higher average returns mainly because they covary more negatively with these changes than what other stocks do.

Suggested Citation

  • Roméo Tédongap, 2015. "Consumption Volatility and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 367-405.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:19:y:2015:i:1:p:367-405.
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    3. Schlag, Christian & Semenischev, Michael & Thimme, Julian, 2020. "Predictability and the cross-section of expected returns: A challenge for asset pricing models," SAFE Working Paper Series 289, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.

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