IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/econjl/v131y2021i637p2203-2232..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Revisiting the Hypothesis of High Discounts and High Unemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Paolo Martellini
  • Guido Menzio
  • Ludo Visschers

Abstract

We revisit the hypothesis that cyclical fluctuations in unemployment are caused by shocks to the discount rate. We use a simple but rich search-theoretic model of the labour market in which the UE, EU and EE rates are all endogenous. Analytically, we show that an increase in the discount rate lowers the UE rate and, under some natural conditions, it lowers the EU rate. Quantitatively, we show that an increase in the discount rate from 4% to 10% generates a 3.5% decline in the UE rate and a 6% decline in the EU rate. These findings are at odds with the actual behaviour of the US labour market over the business cycle, which features a negative comovement between the UE and EU rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Martellini & Guido Menzio & Ludo Visschers, 2021. "Revisiting the Hypothesis of High Discounts and High Unemployment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(637), pages 2203-2232.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:131:y:2021:i:637:p:2203-2232.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/ueaa138
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2013. "Stochastic Search Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1545-1581.
    2. Jeremy Lise & Jean-Marc Robin, 2017. "The Macrodynamics of Sorting between Workers and Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1104-1135, April.
    3. Pierre Cahuc & Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2006. "Wage Bargaining with On-the-Job Search: Theory and Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(2), pages 323-364, March.
    4. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    5. Golosov, Mikhail & Menzio, Guido, 2020. "Agency business cycles," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(1), January.
    6. Patrick J. Kehoe & Virgiliu Midrigan & Elena Pastorino, 2019. "Debt Constraints and Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1926-1991.
    7. Guido Menzio & Irina Telyukova & Ludo Visschers, 2016. "Directed Search over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 38-62, January.
    8. Jesper Bagger & Fran?ois Fontaine & Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2014. "Tenure, Experience, Human Capital, and Wages: A Tractable Equilibrium Search Model of Wage Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1551-1596, June.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8grh35j2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2002. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2295-2350, November.
    11. Kyle Herkenhoff & Jeremy Lise & Guido Menzio & Gordon M. Phillips, 2018. "Production and Learning in Teams," NBER Working Papers 25179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2016. "Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(3), pages 771-825.
    13. Guido Menzio & Shouyong Shi, 2011. "Efficient Search on the Job and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 468-510.
    14. Robert E. Hall & Paul R. Milgrom, 2008. "The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1653-1674, September.
    15. Jeremy Lise & Jean-Marc Robin, 2017. "The Macrodynamics of Sorting between Workers and Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1104-1135, April.
    16. Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2002. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity," Post-Print hal-03458567, HAL.
    17. Robert E. Hall, 2017. "High Discounts and High Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 305-330, February.
    18. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
    19. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David Wiczer, 2020. "Pandemic Recession: L- or V-Shaped?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 40(01), pages 1-31, May.
    20. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    21. James Heckman & Lance Lochner & Christopher Taber, 1998. "Explaining Rising Wage Inequality: Explanations With A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Labor Earnings With Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 1-58, January.
    22. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-990, October.
    23. Yoram Ben-Porath, 1967. "The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 352-352.
    24. Jesper Bagger & Francois Fontaine & Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2014. "Tenure, Experience, Human Capital, and Wages," Post-Print hal-01301431, HAL.
    25. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7rep5mp5ij95l94ec64n5tdclp is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-690, September.
    27. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2gm7u1h28o97arriihp43sr90l is not listed on IDEAS
    28. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms985085gkbp is not listed on IDEAS
    29. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/22qd4iha9ql84kd2t534hdeb is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Davis, Colin & Hashimoto, Ken-ichi, 2022. "Productivity growth, industry location patterns and labor market frictions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David G. Wiczer, 2021. "The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 28663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bjoern Bruegemann, 2023. "Invariance of Unemployment and Vacancy Dynamics with Respect to Diminishing Returns to Labor at the Firm Level," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 915-942, December.
    4. Singh, Aarti & Suda, Jacek & Zervou, Anastasia, 2021. "Heterogeneous labour market response to monetary policy: small versus large firms," Working Papers 2021-07, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2021.
    5. Malak Kandoussi & François Langot, 2021. "On the heterogeneous impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown on US unemployment," TEPP Working Paper 2021-01, TEPP.
    6. Clymo, Alex, 2020. "Discounts, rationing, and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Dou, Winston Wei & Ji, Yan & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Competition, profitability, and discount rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 582-620.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David G. Wiczer, 2021. "The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 28663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2024. "On the Job Search and Business Cycles," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 75(1), pages 73-112.
    3. Rune Vejlin & Gregory F. Veramendi, 2023. "Sufficient statistics for frictional wage dispersion and growth," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), pages 935-979, July.
    4. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 678-724.
    5. Guido Menzio & Irina Telyukova & Ludo Visschers, 2016. "Directed Search over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 38-62, January.
    6. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2016. "Wage Posting and Business Cycles: a Quantitative Exploration," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 135-160, January.
    7. Niklas Engbom & Christian Moser, 2022. "Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(12), pages 3803-3847, December.
    8. Pietro Garibaldi & Espen Moen & Dag-Einar Sommervoll, 2016. "Competitive On-the-job Search," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 88-107, January.
    9. Pawel Krolikowski, 2017. "Job Ladders and Earnings of Displaced Workers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-31, April.
    10. Ryan Michaels & David Ratner & Michael Elsby, 2016. "Vacancy Chains," 2016 Meeting Papers 753, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, Francois & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2019. "Unemployment fluctuations over the life cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 334-352.
    12. Rogerson, Richard & Shimer, Robert, 2011. "Search in Macroeconomic Models of the Labor Market," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 7, pages Pages: 61, Elsevier.
    13. Ji, Yan, 2021. "Job Search under Debt: Aggregate Implications of Student Loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 741-759.
    14. Felipe Alves, 2022. "Job Ladder and Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 22-14, Bank of Canada.
    15. Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2019. "Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital," Staff Reports 908, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Gottfries, Axel & Teulings, Coen, 2023. "Returns to on-the-job search and wage dispersion," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5taek6gt3k8m0r69e1j1ombcc5 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Paolo Martellini & Guido Menzio, 2020. "Declining Search Frictions, Unemployment, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(12), pages 4387-4437.
    19. Niklas Engbom, 2019. "Application Cycles," 2019 Meeting Papers 1170, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Jan Eeckhout & Ilse Lindenlaub, 2019. "Unemployment Cycles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 175-234, October.
    21. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2011. "Frictional Wage Dispersion in Search Models: A Quantitative Assessment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 2873-2898, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:131:y:2021:i:637:p:2203-2232.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/resssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.