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Are You Estimating the Right Thing? An Editor Reflects

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  • John Gibson

Abstract

A key aspect of applied economics over the last decade has been the status accorded to research designs that may credibly identify causal effects. Without such designs, one may not estimate the right thing and publishing options may be limited. Yet situations where reported results are not for parameters that researchers think they have identified are potentially more widespread than what is usually considered in discussion of research designs or identification strategies. I give five examples of applied practice where what is estimated may not identify what is wanted. Each practice came up in submissions I handled as co-editor of an agricultural economics journal, and these issues seem common in applied work. A narrow focus on identification strategies may lead to the neglect of these examples, and of other productive ways to improve the credibility and usefulness of applied economics research.

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  • John Gibson, 2019. "Are You Estimating the Right Thing? An Editor Reflects," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 329-350.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:apecpp:v:41:y:2019:i:3:p:329-350.
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    1. Keane, Michael P., 2010. "Structural vs. atheoretic approaches to econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 3-20, May.
    2. Gibson, John & Kim, Bonggeun, 2013. "Quality, Quantity, and Nutritional Impacts of Rice Price Changes in Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 329-340.
    3. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    4. David McKenzie & John Gibson & Steven Stillman, 2010. "How Important Is Selection? Experimental vs. Non-Experimental Measures of the Income Gains from Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 913-945, June.
    5. Lin, Xu & Lee, Lung-fei, 2010. "GMM estimation of spatial autoregressive models with unknown heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 34-52, July.
    6. Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September.
    7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    8. Guido W. Imbens, 2010. "Better LATE Than Nothing: Some Comments on Deaton (2009) and Heckman and Urzua (2009)," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 399-423, June.
    9. Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter, 2010. "The Power and Pitfalls of Experiments in Development Economics: Some Non-random Reflections," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(4), pages 515-548.
    10. Deaton, Angus & Cartwright, Nancy, 2018. "Understanding and misunderstanding randomized controlled trials," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 2-21.
    11. Ravallion, Martin, 1996. "Issues in Measuring and Modelling Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1328-1343, September.
    12. Rust, John, 2010. "Comments on: "Structural vs. atheoretic approaches to econometrics" by Michael Keane," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 21-24, May.
    13. John Gibson, 2016. "Poverty Measurement: We Know Less than Policy Makers Realize," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 430-442, September.
    14. Jerry Hausman, 2001. "Mismeasured Variables in Econometric Analysis: Problems from the Right and Problems from the Left," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 57-67, Fall.
    15. Angrist, Joshua D. & Krueger, Alan B., 1999. "Empirical strategies in labor economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1277-1366, Elsevier.
    16. Ferrini, Silvia & Scarpa, Riccardo, 2007. "Designs with a priori information for nonmarket valuation with choice experiments: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 342-363, May.
    17. Rachel Griffith & Ephraim Leibtag & Andrew Leicester & Aviv Nevo, 2009. "Consumer Shopping Behavior: How Much Do Consumers Save?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 99-120, Spring.
    18. Gibson, John & Datt, Gaurav & Murgai, Rinku & Ravallion, Martin, 2017. "For India’s Rural Poor, Growing Towns Matter More Than Growing Cities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 413-429.
    19. McDonald, John F & Moffitt, Robert A, 1980. "The Uses of Tobit Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 318-321, May.
    20. Angus Deaton, 1991. "Price Elasticities from Survey Data: Extensions and Indonesian Results," International Economic Association Series, in: Marc Nerlove (ed.), Issues in Contemporary Economics, chapter 10, pages 253-283, Palgrave Macmillan.
    21. John Gibson & Bonggeun Kim & Susan Olivia, 2014. "Cluster-Corrected Standard Errors with Exact Locations Known: An Example from Rural Indonesia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1857-1863.
    22. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
    23. Angus Deaton, 2010. "Instruments, Randomization, and Learning about Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 424-455, June.
    24. Emily Yucai Wang, 2015. "The impact of soda taxes on consumer welfare: implications of storability and taste heterogeneity," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 409-441, June.
    25. McKelvey, Christopher, 2011. "Price, unit value, and quality demanded," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 157-169, July.
    26. Jeffrey Grogger, 2017. "Soda Taxes And The Prices of Sodas And Other Drinks: Evidence From Mexico," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(2), pages 481-498.
    27. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    28. John Gibson & Chao Li, 2017. "The Erroneous Use Of China'S Population And Per Capita Data: A Structured Review And Critical Test," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 905-922, September.
    29. Lee, Lung-fei & Yu, Jihai, 2010. "Estimation of spatial autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 165-185, February.
    30. Pepper, John V., 2002. "Robust inferences from random clustered samples: an application using data from the panel study of income dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 341-345, May.
    31. Greene, William H, 1981. "On the Asymptotic Bias of the Ordinary Least Squares Estimator of the Tobit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 505-513, March.
    32. Gibson, John & Rozelle, Scott, 2003. "Poverty and Access to Roads in Papua New Guinea," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(1), pages 159-185, October.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Alan de Brauw & Sylvan Herskowitz, 2021. "Income Variability, Evolving Diets, and Elasticity Estimation of Demand for Processed Foods in Nigeria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1294-1313, August.
    4. Godwin Kwabla Ekpe & Anna A. Klis, 2023. "Spillover Effects in Irrigated Agriculture from the Groundwater Commons," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(3), pages 469-507, November.
    5. Christopher Kilby & Carolyn McWhirter, 2022. "The World Bank COVID-19 response: Politics as usual?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 627-656, July.
    6. Kaiyatsa, Stevier & Schneider, Kate R. & Masters, William A., 2021. "Missing prices in CPI data reflect both seasonal availability and random omissions: Evidence from a novel survey of market informants in Malawi," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313972, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Julio C. Arteaga & Daniel Flores & Edgar Luna, 2021. "The effect of a soft drink tax in Mexico: evidence from time series industry data," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(2), pages 349-366, April.
    8. Sharma, Hari, 2020. "The effect of emigration and remittances on labour supply of the left-behind: Evidence from Nepal," MPRA Paper 102091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Schneider, Kate R., 2022. "Nationally representative estimates of the cost of adequate diets, nutrient level drivers, and policy options for households in rural Malawi," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Sharma, Hari & Gibson, John, 2020. "Escalation of civil war in Nepal: The role of poverty, inequality and caste polarisation," MPRA Paper 101450, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Travis J. Lybbert & Steven T. Buccola, 2021. "The evolving ethics of analysis, publication, and transparency in applied economics," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 1330-1351, December.
    12. Ludger Schuknecht & Vincent Siegerink, 2021. "The Political Economy of the International Tax Transparency Agenda in the G20/OECD Context," CESifo Working Paper Series 8813, CESifo.
    13. Bessen, James & Impink, Stephen Michael & Reichensperger, Lydia & Seamans, Robert, 2022. "The role of data for AI startup growth," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(5).

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