How Important is Selection? Experimental vs Non-experimental Measures of Income Gains from Migration

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How Important is Selection? Experimental vs Non-experimental Measures of Income Gains from Migration

Author Info

David McKenzie () (The World Bank)
John Gibson (University of Waikato)
Steven Stillman (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

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Abstract

Measuring the gain in income from migration is complicated by non-random selection of migrants from the general population, making it hard to obtain an appropriate comparison group of non-migrants. This paper uses a migrant lottery to overcome this problem, providing an experimental measure of the income gains from migration. New Zealand allows a quota of Tongans to immigrate each year with a lottery used to choose amongst the excess number of applicants. A unique survey conducted by the authors in these two countries allows experimental estimates of the income gains from migration to be obtained by comparing the incomes of migrants to those who applied to migrate, but whose names were not drawn in the lottery, after allowing for the effect of non-compliance among some of those whose names were drawn. We also conducted a survey of individuals who did not apply for the lottery. Comparing this non-applicant group to the migrants enables assessment of the degree to which non-experimental methods can provide an unbiased estimate of the income gains from migration. We find evidence of migrants being positively selected in terms of both observed and unobserved skills. As a result, non-experimental methods are found to overstate the gains from migration, by 9 to 82 percent. A good instrumental variable works best, while difference-in-differences and bias-adjusted propensity-score matching also perform comparatively well.

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Paper provided by University of Waikato, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 06/03.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 31 Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:06/03

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2006-06-17 (All new papers)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Daniel Chiquiar and Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. "International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution of Wages: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 239-281, April.
Other versions:
- Daniel Chiquiar & Gordon H. Hanson, 2002. "International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution of Wages: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," NBER Working Papers 9242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 2002. "Propensity Score-Matching Methods For Nonexperimental Causal Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 151-161, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
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Other versions:
- Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 2003. "Does Matching Overcome Lalonde's Critique of Nonexperimental Estimators?," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Human Capital and Productivity Project Working Papers 20035, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Human Capital and Productivity Project. [Downloadable!]
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
- Guido W. Imbens, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects under Exogeneity: A Review," NBER Technical Working Papers 0294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

McKenzie, David & Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven, 2007. "A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold : do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4141, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- David McKenzie & John Gibson & Steven Stillman, 2007. "A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold: Do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad?," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0709, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London. [Downloadable!]
- David McKenzie & John Gibson & Steven Stillman, 2007. "A Land of Milk and Honey with Streets Paved with Gold: Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expectations about Incomes Abroad?," IZA Discussion Papers 2788, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
David McKenzie & John Gibson & Steven Stillman, 2007. "Moving to Opportunity, Leaving Behind What? Evaluating the Initial Effects of a Migration Policy on Incomes and Poverty in Source Areas," Working Papers in Economics 07/23, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Steven Stillman & David McKenzie & John Gibson, 2006. "Migration and Mental Health: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Working Papers in Economics 06/04, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Stillman, Steven & McKenzie, David & Gibson, John, 2007. "Migration and mental health : evidence from a natural experiment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4138, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]

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