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The economic cost of natural disasters the case of the tsunami and nuclear emergency in Japan in 2011

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Hugo Barrientos-Marín

    (Universidad de Antioquia)

  • Sebastian Ospina-Valencia

    (Universidad de Antioquia)

  • Sebastian Giraldo

    (Universidad Autónoma Latinoamericana)

Abstract

In this paper we are interested in estimating the economic cost of the tsunami occurred in 2011 in Japan (as well as the subsequent nuclear emergency caused by the damage to the Fukushima’s reactor) and that affected the prefectures (provinces) of the northeast region (Fukushima, Itawe and Miyagui). To this goal, we perform the synthetic control methodology (MCS), by constructing “synthetic prefecture” using the prefectures that were not affected by the Tsunami. The results show that the cost of disaster in 2011 amounted to 2.5 billion yen (23.000 million US $), equivalent to 18% of GDP (sum of the sectoral GDP relevant to the economy of the three prefectures) and the positive causal effect measured between 2012 and 2014 was around 1.4 billion yen (12.800 million US $), equivalent to10% of GDP. The results of this paper are relevant due to they provide us a methodology for estimating the economic causal effect of disasters and conflicts

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Hugo Barrientos-Marín & Sebastian Ospina-Valencia & Sebastian Giraldo, 2020. "The economic cost of natural disasters the case of the tsunami and nuclear emergency in Japan in 2011," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 93, pages 225-260, Julio-Dic.
    • Handle: RePEc:lde:journl:y:2020:i:93:p:225-260
    DOI: 10.17533/udea.le.n93a340531
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    synthetic counterfactual; nuclear; Fukushima; optimal weighting; tsunami;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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