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The Unresolved Mystery of the Great Divergence is Solved

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  • Ron W. NIELSEN

    (Griffith University, Australia.)

Abstract

The so-called great divergence in the income per capita is described in the Unified Growth Theory as the mind-boggling and unresolved mystery about the growth process. This mystery has now been solved: the great divergence never happened. It was created by the manipulation of data. Economic growth in various regions is at different levels of development but it follows similar, non-divergent trajectories. Unified Growth Theory is shown yet again to be incorrect and scientifically unacceptable. It promotes incorrect and even potentially dangerous concepts. The distorted presentation of data supporting the concept of the great divergence shows that economic growth is now developing along moderately-increasing trajectories but mathematical analysis of the same data and even their undistorted presentation shows that these trajectories are now increasing approximately vertically with time. So, while the distorted presentation of data used in the Unified Growth Theory and the spuriously-created great divergence suggest the generally sustainable and secure economic growth, the undistorted presentation of data demonstrates that the growth is unsustainable and insecure. Similar dangerously incorrect concept promoted by the Unified Growth Theory is the repeated doctrine of takeoffs from the hypothetical but non-existent stagnation to growth. They also suggest prosperous and secure future. Such takeoffs never happened but even without them the current economic growth is insecure.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "The Unresolved Mystery of the Great Divergence is Solved," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 196-219, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ3:v:3:y:2016:i:2:p:196-219
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Demographic Catastrophes Did Not Shape the Growth of Human Population or the Economic Growth," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 121-141, June.
    2. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Population and Economic Growth in Australia: 8,000 BC - AD 1700 Extended to 60,000 BC," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 41-54, March.
    3. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Scientifically Unacceptable Established Knowledge in Demography and in Economic Research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 429-457, September.
    4. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Explaining the Origin of the Anthropocene and Predicting Its Future," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 354-386, December.
    5. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Puzzling Features of the Historical Income per Capita Distributions Explained," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 10-24, March.
    6. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Changing the direction of the economic and demographic research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 288-309, September.
    7. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Income Per Capita in the United Kingdom," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 551-561, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Unified Growth Theory; Regional economic growth; Great Divergence; Income per capita; Hyperbolic growth.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • N00 - Economic History - - General - - - General
    • Y80 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Related Disciplines - - - Related Disciplines

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