"Uncertainty in the Movies: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?"
AbstractEveryone knows that the movie business is risky. But how risky is it? Do strategies exist that reduce risk? We investigate these questions using a sample of over 200 motion pictures. We discover that the movies are very risky indeed. Box-office revenues are asymptotically Pareto-distributed and have infinite variance. The mean is dominated by rare blockbuster movies that are located in the far right tail. There is no typical movie because box-office revenue outcomes do not converge to an average, they diverge over all scales.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by California Irvine - School of Social Sciences in its series Papers with number 98-99-10.
Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
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Postal: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA IRVINE, SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, IRVINECALIFORNIA 91717 U.S.A.
CINEMA ; UNCERTAINTY ; CULTURE;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
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- Z1 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics
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