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Explaining the Origin of the Anthropocene and Predicting Its Future

Author

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  • Ron W. NIELSEN

    (Griffith University, Environmental Futures Research Institute, Gold Coast Campus, Qld, 4222, Australia.)

Abstract

New interpretation of the Anthropocene is presented, the interpretation based on the rigorous analysis of the growth of human population and of economic growth in the past 2,000,000 years, which are found to have been hyperbolic. The Anthropocene appears to transcends the geological epochs of Pleistocene and Holocene. Anthropogenic impacts evolved over a long time on the canvas of hyperbolic growth of population. There were probably various stages of the Anthropocene in the past 2,000,000 years or even over a longer time. The current stage is distinctly different because now, for the first time in human existence, we are shaping our global future and even the future of our planet. This modern stage of the Anthropocene is characterised by the rapid growth of population, rapid economic growth, rapid consumption of natural resources and rapidly increasing impacts on the environment. All these features can be easily explained by characteristic properties of hyperbolic growth. Hyperbolic distributions are slow over a long time and fast over a short time. The origin of the Anthropocene can be explained as the natural consequence of hyperbolic growth of population. The mechanism of the Anthropocene can be also explained by referring to the mechanism of the growth of population. The beginning of the current stage of the Anthropocene is difficult or maybe even impossible to determine because anthropogenic impacts are likely to have been increasing monotonically. The future of the Anthropocene, which is also our future, is uncertain because it is dictated by many critical anthropogenic trends, but notably because the size of the world population is predicted to continue to increase at least until the end of the current century to a possibly unsustainable level and because the world economic growth follows now an unsustainable trajectory. Effects of the current human activities might affect global ecosystems for a long time into the future but we might not be there to see them.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Explaining the Origin of the Anthropocene and Predicting Its Future," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 354-386, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ3:v:4:y:2017:i:4:p:354-386
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Puzzling Features of the Historical Income per Capita Distributions Explained," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 10-24, March.
    2. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477.
    3. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "The unresolved mystery of the great divergence is solved," Papers 1603.08344, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    4. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Scientifically Unacceptable Established Knowledge in Demography and in Economic Research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 429-457, September.
    5. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Puzzling Properties of the Historical Growth Rate of Income Per Capita Explained," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 241-256, June.
    6. Vaclav Smil, 1999. "Detonator of the population explosion," Nature, Nature, vol. 400(6743), pages 415-415, July.
    7. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mechanism of Hyperbolic Growth Explained," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 603-620, December.
    8. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Demographic Transition Theory and Its Link to the Historical Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 32-49, March.
    9. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "The Postulate of the Three Regimes of Economic Growth Contradicted by Data," Papers 1602.05718, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    10. Ron W. Nielsen, 2017. "Application of Differential Equations in Projecting Growth Trajectories," Papers 1705.06557, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    11. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "Puzzling properties of the historical growth rate of income per capita explained," Papers 1603.00736, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    12. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Application of differential equations in projecting growth trajectories," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 203-221, September.
    13. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
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    15. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "Mathematical analysis of historical income per capita distributions," Papers 1603.01685, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    16. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "The dichotomy of Malthusian positive checks: Destruction and even more intensified regeneration," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 409-433, September.
    17. World Bank, 2017. "World Development Indicators 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 26447, December.
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    19. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "The Postulate of the Three Regimes of Economic Growth Contradicted by Data," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-34, March.
    20. Ron W Nielsen, 2015. "The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth," Papers 1510.07928, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2015.
    21. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "The Unresolved Mystery of the Great Divergence is Solved," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 196-219, June.
    22. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Historical Income Per Capita Distributions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 300-319, June.
    23. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2015. "The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 242-255, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    The Anthropocene; Economic growth; Population growth; Mechanism of growth; Hyperbolic growth; Exponential growth; Future of the Anthropocene.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • Y80 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Related Disciplines - - - Related Disciplines

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