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Puzzling Properties of the Historical Growth Rate of Income Per Capita Explained

Author

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  • Ron W. NIELSEN

    (Griffith University, Australia.)

Abstract

Galor discovered many mysteries of the growth process. He lists them in his Unified Growth Theory and wonders how they can be explained. Close inspection of his mysteries reveals that they are of his own creation. They do not exist. One of his claimed mysteries is the mystery of the alleged sudden spurt in the growth rate of income per capita and in the growth of population. This sudden spurt never happened. Precisely the same data, which were used in support of the Unified Growth Theory are in fact in its direct contradiction. They show that the created mysteries of growth do not exist. The difference between the diametrically opposite conclusions is that in order to support the Unified Growth Theory and to create the mysteries of growth data were appropriately manipulated and distorted but the contradicting evidence is based on their rigorous analysis. The mechanism of the historical economic growth and of the growth of human population is yet to be explained but it would be unproductive to try to look for explanations in the Unified Growth Theory. However, the problem is much deeper than just the examination of this theory. Demographic Growth Theory is based on the incorrect but deeply entrenched postulates developed by accretion over many years and now generally accepted in the economic and demographic research, postulates revolving around the concept of Malthusian stagnation and around a transition from stagnation to growth. The study presented here and earlier similar publications show that these postulates need to be replaced by interpretations based on the mathematical analysis of data and on the correct understanding of hyperbolic distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Puzzling Properties of the Historical Growth Rate of Income Per Capita Explained," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 241-256, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ5:v:3:y:2016:i:2:p:241-256
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
    2. Oded Galor, 2005. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 494-504, 04/05.
    3. Galor, Oded, 2007. "Multiple growth regimes - Insights from unified growth theory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 470-475, September.
    4. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Demographic Transition Theory and Its Link to the Historical Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 32-49, March.
    5. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
    6. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    7. Brian Snowdon, 2008. "Towards a Unified Theory of Economic Growth," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 9(2), pages 97-151, April.
    8. Conrad Taeuber & Irene B. Taeuber, 1949. "World Population Trends," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 31(1_Part_2), pages 237-250.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Demographic Catastrophes Did Not Shape the Growth of Human Population or the Economic Growth," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 121-141, June.
    2. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "The Unresolved Mystery of the Great Divergence is Solved," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 196-219, June.
    3. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Scientifically Unacceptable Established Knowledge in Demography and in Economic Research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 429-457, September.
    4. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Explaining the Origin of the Anthropocene and Predicting Its Future," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 354-386, December.
    5. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Puzzling Features of the Historical Income per Capita Distributions Explained," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 10-24, March.
    6. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Changing the direction of the economic and demographic research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 288-309, September.
    7. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Historical Income Per Capita Distributions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 300-319, June.
    8. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Income Per Capita in the United Kingdom," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 551-561, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Population growth; Growth rates; Gross Domestic Product; Income per capita; Unified Growth Theory; Hyperbolic growth.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • Y80 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Related Disciplines - - - Related Disciplines

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