IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksp/journ2/v3y2016i1p16-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Absence of Takeoffs in the Gross Domestic Product

Author

Listed:
  • Ron W. NIELSEN

    (Griffith University, Australia.)

Abstract

Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. They demonstrate convincingly that the take offs from stagnation to growth, claimed in the Unified Growth Theory, never happened. This theory is again contradicted by the same data which were used, but never properly analysed, during its formulation. The absence of the claimed takeoffs demonstrates that the postulate of the differential takeoffs is also contradicted by data. Furthermore, this analysis demonstrates that the mathematically-analysable data contradict the concept of the prolonged Malthusian stagnation, its effects on the economic growth as well as the concept of a dramatic escape from the Malthusian trap.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Absence of Takeoffs in the Gross Domestic Product," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 16-27, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ2:v:3:y:2016:i:1:p:16-27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/TER/article/download/650/800
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/TER/article/view/650
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
    2. Oded Galor, 2005. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 494-504, 04/05.
    3. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477.
    4. Oded Galor, 2010. "The 2008 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture-Comparative Economic Development: Insights From Unified Growth Theory," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(1), pages 1-44, February.
    5. Galor, Oded, 2007. "Multiple growth regimes - Insights from unified growth theory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 470-475, September.
    6. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Growth of the World Population in the Past 12,000 Years and Its Link to the Economic Growth," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-12, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Demographic Catastrophes Did Not Shape the Growth of Human Population or the Economic Growth," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 121-141, June.
    2. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Growth of Human Population," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 242-263, June.
    3. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "The unresolved mystery of the great divergence is solved," Papers 1603.08344, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Interpretations of Hyperbolic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 594-626, December.
    2. Ron W Nielsen, 2015. "Mathematics of Predicting Growth," Papers 1510.06337, arXiv.org.
    3. Ron W Nielsen, 2015. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the GDP/cap Data," Papers 1511.09323, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2015.
    4. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Demographic Catastrophes Did Not Shape the Growth of Human Population or the Economic Growth," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 121-141, June.
    5. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "Puzzling properties of the historical growth rate of income per capita explained," Papers 1603.00736, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    6. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Historical Income Per Capita Distributions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 300-319, June.
    7. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Puzzling Features of the Historical Income per Capita Distributions Explained," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 10-24, March.
    8. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Population and Economic Growth in Australia: 8,000 BC - AD 1700 Extended to 60,000 BC," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 41-54, March.
    9. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "The history augmented Solow model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 134-149.
    10. Ron W. Nielsen, 2017. "Changing the Direction of the Economic and Demographic Research," Papers 1708.08673, arXiv.org.
    11. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Growth of Human Population," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 242-263, June.
    12. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Changing the direction of the economic and demographic research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 288-309, September.
    13. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2022. "The rural exodus and the rise of Europe," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 365-414, September.
    14. Sascha Becker & Francesco Cinnirella & Ludger Woessmann, 2010. "The trade-off between fertility and education: evidence from before the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 177-204, September.
    15. Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor, 2011. "Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2003-2041, August.
    16. Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor & Ömer Özak, 2010. "Isolation and Development," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 401-412, 04-05.
    17. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen & Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Pablo Selaya, 2011. "Eye Disease and Development," Discussion Papers 11-22, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    18. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Scientifically Unacceptable Established Knowledge in Demography and in Economic Research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 429-457, September.
    19. Diebolt, Claude & Mishra, Tapas & Perrin, Faustine, 2021. "Gender empowerment as an enforcer of individuals’ choice between education and fertility: Evidence from 19th century France," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 408-438.
    20. Brian Snowdon, 2008. "Towards a Unified Theory of Economic Growth," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 9(2), pages 97-151, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Historical economic growth; regimes of growth; Malthusian stagnation; takeoffs; Malthusian trap; hyperbolic growth.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • B10 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - General
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksp:journ2:v:3:y:2016:i:1:p:16-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bilal KARGI (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kspjournals.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.