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Application of differential equations in projecting growth trajectories

Author

Listed:
  • Ron W. NIELSEN

    (Griffith University, Environmental Futures Research Institute, Gold Coast Campus, Qld, 4222, Australia.)

Abstract

Mathematical method based on a direct or indirect analysis of growth rates is described. It is shown how simple assumptions and a relatively easy analysis can be used to describe mathematically complicated trends and to predict growth. Only rudimentary knowledge of calculus is required. Projected trajectories based on such simple initial assumptions are easier to accept and to understand than alternative complicated projections based on more complicated assumptions and on more intricate computational procedures. Examples of the growth of population and of the growth of the Gross Domestic Product are used to illustrate the application of this method of forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Application of differential equations in projecting growth trajectories," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 203-221, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ6:v:4:y:2017:i:3:p:203-221
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    File URL: http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/JEB/article/view/1363
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Income Per Capita in the United Kingdom," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 551-561, December.
    2. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Demographic Transition Theory and Its Link to the Historical Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 32-49, March.
    3. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "Mathematical analysis of historical income per capita distributions," Papers 1603.01685, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    4. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Historical Income Per Capita Distributions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 300-319, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Explaining the Origin of the Anthropocene and Predicting Its Future," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 354-386, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Differential equations; Analysis of growth rates; Growth trends.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • Y80 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Related Disciplines - - - Related Disciplines

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