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Az inflációs cél követésének rendszere Magyarországon
[The system for targeting inflation goals in Hungary]

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  • Csermely, Ágnes
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    Abstract

    E cikkben az inflációs cél követésének rendszere mögötti közgazdasági elgondolást, illetve a magyarországi gyakorlat főbb gazdaságpolitikai tapasztalatait összegezzük. Először röviden bemutatjuk azt a modellkeretet, ami megítélésünk szerint leginkább tükröz a mai jegybankok gondolkodását a gazdaság működéséről. Összefoglaljuk, hogy e modellkeretben milyen normatív következtetések vonhatók le az optimális monetáris politikáról, és hogy ezek az elméleti megfontolások hogyan tükröződnek az inflációs célt követő monetáris rendszerekben. Ezután a rezsim hatékonyságával, eredményességével kapcsolatos nemzetközi tapasztalatokat foglaljuk össze. Végül, visszatekintve az elmúlt öt évre, vázoljuk azokat a körülményeket, amelyek az inflációs cél követésének hazai bevezetését kísérték, az akkori gazdaságpolitikai megfontolásokat és a rendszer működtetésének eddigi tapasztalatait. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E50, E58.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

    Volume (Year): LIII (2006)
    Issue (Month): 12 ()
    Pages: 1058-1079

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    Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:884

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    Postal: Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) Budapest, Budaörsi út 45., 1112, Hungary
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    References

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    1. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ball, Laurence & Gregory Mankiw, N. & Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "Monetary policy for inattentive economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 703-725, May.
    3. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    4. Ben Bernanke & Frederic Mishkin, 1992. "Central Bank Behavior and the Strategy of Monetary Policy: Observations from Six Industrialized Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 183-238 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Marc Zelmer & Andrea Schaechter, 2000. "Adopting Inflation Targeting," IMF Occasional Papers 202, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real wage rigidities and the New Keynesian model," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo, 2002. "International Dimensions of Optimal Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," NBER Working Papers 8858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hidi, János, 2006. "A magyar monetáris politikai reakciófüggvény becslése
      [Estimating the reaction function for Hungarian monetary policy]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1178-1199.
    10. Calderon, Cesar & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2003. "Macroeconomic policies and performance in Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 895-923, December.
    11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
    12. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Jordi Gal� & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ábel, István & Siklos, Pierre L., 2007. "Mindentől függetlenül. A monetáris politika hatása a gazdasági ciklusra Magyarországon
      [Irrespective of everything. The effect of monetary policy on the economic cycle]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 945-959.
    2. Kovács, Mihály András, 2007. "Mit csinál a monetáris politika az inflációs célkövetés rendszerében?. Észrevételek Erdős Tibor Árfolyam-politika és inflációs célkövetés Magyarországon című írásához
      [What
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1103-1120.

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