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Légy résen! Az államháztartási egyenleg ciklikus igazítása
[Be on your guard! Cyclically adjusted budget deficit]

Author

Listed:
  • P. Kiss, Gábor
  • Vadas, Gábor

Abstract

A ciklikusan igazított államháztartási deficit a költségvetési helyzet értékelésére széles körben alkalmazott fogalom. Alapgondolata az, hogy az államháztartási hiányon belül el kell választani az átmeneti és/vagy nem diszkrecionális hatásokat a deficit tartós részétől, illetve a költségvetési politika diszkrecionális intézkedéseinek hatásaitól. A mutató kiszámítása a közgazdasági változók potenciális szintjének megállapításán alapszik. A tanulmány bemutatja, hogy az összetétel mind a nominális, mind a reálmutatók esetében számít. Az Európai Bizottságnak és az Európai Központi Banknak is saját módszere van a ciklikusan igazított államháztartási deficit mérésére, ám egyik sem képes teljes mértékben eleget tenni valamennyi követelménynek. A tanulmány olyan alternatív eljárást mutat be, amely ötvözi e két módszer előnyeit. Az eljárás egy termelési függvény alapú kibocsátási rés és egy korlátozott többváltozós HP-szűrő kombinációja, amely a termelési függvény paraméterezésének és más elméleti összefüggések felhasználásával bontja szét az aggregált kibocsátási rést komponenseire. A nominális tényezőknél - például az adójogszabályok nominális elemeinél és egyes, kormány által befolyásolt deflátoroknál - a "diszkrecionális intézkedés" fogalmának pontosabb meghatározása is szükséges.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: H62, E32.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Kiss, Gábor & Vadas, Gábor, 2005. "Légy résen! Az államháztartási egyenleg ciklikus igazítása [Be on your guard! Cyclically adjusted budget deficit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 109-129.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:742
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
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    11. Bouthevillain, Carine & Cour-Thimann, Philippine & van de Dool, Gerrit & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Langenus, Geert & Mohr, Matthias & Momigliano, Sandro & Tujula, Mika, 2001. "Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach," Working Paper Series 77, European Central Bank.
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    1. Gábor P. Kiss & Zoltán Reppa, 2010. "Quo vadis, deficit? How high the tax level will be when the economic cycle reverses?," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 5(3), pages 47-56, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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