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Estimating the output gap for the Maltese economy

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  • Grech, Aaron George

Abstract

An attempt is made in this paper to arrive at an estimate of the output gap for the Maltese economy on a quarterly and annual basis. Two approaches are adopted, namely the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the aggregate production function method, with their results being benchmarked with the results of two other studies. The methods adopted in this paper indicate that the Maltese economy passed through three separate business cycles during the last three decades, with the size of the fluctuations moderating over time. Potential output growth is estimated to have declined significantly during the nineties, as factors of production are growing by a smaller margin. This indicates the importance of carrying out structural reforms that would boost productivity growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33663.

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Date of creation: Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33663

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Keywords: potential output; output gap;

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References

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  1. Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output," IMF Working Papers 97/177, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
  3. Abadir, Karim & Talmain, Gabriel, 2001. "Depreciation Rates and Capital Stocks," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(1), pages 42-51, January.
  4. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Kiel Working Papers 1053, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
  6. Edward Nelson & Kalin Nikolov, 2001. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Bank of England working papers 148, Bank of England.
  7. Grech, Aaron George, 2003. "Employment and the labour input in the Maltese economy," MPRA Paper 33383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. José A. Hernández & Ignacio Mauleón, 2002. "Estimating the Capital Stock," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2002-03, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC.
  9. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  10. Grech, Aaron George, 2003. "Assessing employment in Malta," MPRA Paper 33380, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Grech, Aaron George & Micallef, Brian, 2014. "Assessing the supply of the Maltese economy using a production function approach," MPRA Paper 53882, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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