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Government expenditure and economic growth in the EU: long-run tendencies and short-term adjustment

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  • Alfonso Arpaia
  • Alessandro Turrini

Abstract

This paper analyses both the long and the short-run relation between government expenditure and potential output in EU countries by means of pooled mean group estimation (Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999)). Results show that, over a sample comprising EU-15 countries over the 1970-2003 period, it cannot be rejected the hypothesis of a common long-term elasticity between cyclically-adjusted primary expenditure and potential output close to unity. However, the long-run elasticity decreased considerably over the decades and is significantly higher than unity in catching-up countries, in fast-ageing countries, in low-debt countries, and in countries with weak numerical rules for the control of government spending. The average speed of adjustment of government expenditure to its long-tem relation is 3 years, but there are significant differences across countries. Anglo-Saxon and Nordic countries exhibit in general a faster adjustment process, while adjustment in Southern European countries appears somehow slower.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 300.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0300

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Keywords: Government expenditure; neutral expenditure stance; government expenditure spped of adjustment; Wagner's law; panel cointegration; pooled mean group estimator; Arpaia; Turrini;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Donath, Liliana & Milos, Marius Cristian & Milos, Laura Raisa, 2008. "Public investment and economic growth in the European Union member states," MPRA Paper 12954, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Alessandro Turrini, 2008. "Fiscal policy and the cycle in the Euro Area: The role of government revenue and expenditure," European Economy - Economic Papers 323, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  3. Vratislav Izák, 2011. "Government Expenditures and Taxes Influence on the Economic Growth (Empirical Analysis)," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(2), pages 147-163.
  4. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Krustev, Georgi, 2014. "Has US household deleveraging ended? a model-based estimate of equilibrium debt," Working Paper Series 1643, European Central Bank.
  5. Donath, Liliana & Milos, Marius, 2008. "Public sector efficiency according to COFOG classification in the European Union," MPRA Paper 12927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. M.Rosaria Alfano & A. Laura Baraldi, 2008. "The design of electoral rules and their impact on economic growth: the Italian case," Working Papers 3_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  7. Eleftherios Goulas & Athina Zervoyianni, 2012. "Growth, Deficits and Uncertainty in a Panel of 28 Countries," Working Paper Series 52_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  8. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2012. "Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 297-322, September.
  9. Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Further Evidence on Public Spending and Economic Growth in East Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 19298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
  11. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber & Scott Fargher, 2009. "Wagner’s Law Revisited: Cointegration and Causality tests for New Zealand," Working Papers 0917, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
  12. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and Italian disaggregated public spending: some empirical evidences," MPRA Paper 26662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2010. "Real convergence in the new Member States of the European Union (Shorter and longer term prospects)," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 229-253, June.
  14. Vratislav Izák, 2011. "The Welfare State and Economic Growth," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(4), pages 291-308.
  15. Paolo Biraschi & Lorenzo Codogno & Federico Giammusso & Manuela Nenna & Juan Pradelli, . "Are Italy's public finances sustainable? The role of demographics, productivity, and labour markets," Working Papers wp2008-6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  16. Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "The Nexus between Disaggregated Public Spending and GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2560-2579.
  17. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and augmented Wagner's law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality," MPRA Paper 26668, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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