How cyclical do cyclically-adjusted balances remain? An EU study
AbstractObserved budget balances are an imperfect indicator of the fiscal policy stance, because fluctuations in economic activity induce automatic changes in the balance, hence the use of cyclically-adjusted balances (CAB). However, this paper shows that CABs (as measured through one of the two methods currently used by the Commission) tend to be systematically overestimated during downturns and underestimated during expansions. The dominant source of this distortion arises from the filtering of revenues deemed to be cyclical, possibly signalling a problem with the computation of elasticities. The effect of the items which are assumed not to move with the cycle is non significant, but this overall result conceals offseting effects: public investment turns to be significantly procyclical and interest payments and transfers to firms are countercyclical.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Public Economics with number 0507004.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 08 Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 32. published in Hacienda Pública Española, 166-(3/2003): 151-181
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Structural balances; output gap;
Other versions of this item:
- Enrique Alberola & José M. González Mínguez & Pablo Hernández de Cos & José M. Marqués, 2003. "How cyclical do cyclically-adjusted balances remain? An EU study," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 166(3), pages 151-181, September.
- D6 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics
- D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
- H - Public Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-07-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2005-07-11 (European Economics)
- NEP-PBE-2005-07-11 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
- Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
- Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior," IMF Working Papers 14/45, International Monetary Fund.
- Jef Vuchelen & Jesse De Wit, 2008. "An Evaluation of the OECD Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Government Balance Forecasts," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 51(4), pages 459-479.
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