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A makrogazdaság fenntartható finanszírozási pályájának elérhetőségéről
[Achieving a sustainable financing path for the macro economy]

Author

Listed:
  • Bélyácz, Iván
  • Kuti, Mónika

Abstract

Ebben a tanulmányban - a három évvel ezelőtt megjelent cikkünk folytatásaként - a 2008. őszi pénzügyi válság utáni adóssághelyzetet értékeljük. A gondolatmenetet a válság okainak vizsgálatával indítjuk. Ennek fő tanulsága: a likviditási sokk súlyosabb volt azoknak a feltörekvő piacgazdaságoknak - így Magyarországnak - az esetében is, amelyek a válság előtt inkább voltak kitéve a külföldi hiteleknek, mint a külföldi működőtőkének. A makrogazdaság pénzügyi rugalmasságának vizsgálata során a szerzők arra jutnak, hogy Magyarországon ezt a válságot megelőző időben a tetemes külső finanszírozási igény gyengítette, amit még tetézett a megtakarítások válság előtti rendkívül alacsony mértéke. A válságot követően csökkent a külső finanszírozási igény, javult a külkereskedelmi egyenleg, pozitív lett a fizetési mérleg szaldója, mindez azonban a GDP csökkenése-stagnálása közepette történt, ami kérdésessé teszi a pozitív fejlemények tartósságát. A makrogazdasági pénzügyi mutatókat tehát a tartós reálgazdasági válság "javította". A finanszírozási helyzet hatékonyságalapú javulása nem következett be; azt csak a GDP gyorsuló növekedése, az exportexpanzió, a jövedelemtermelés javulása és az állami költségvetés tartós költségoldali konszolidálása teremtheti meg. Gyorsan növekvő termelőberuházások nélkül aligha számíthatunk a produktivitás jelentős növekedésére, a versenyképesség javulására. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: F21, F34.

Suggested Citation

  • Bélyácz, Iván & Kuti, Mónika, 2012. "A makrogazdaság fenntartható finanszírozási pályájának elérhetőségéről [Achieving a sustainable financing path for the macro economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 781-797.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1325
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "A Decade of Debt," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 4, pages 97-135, Central Bank of Chile.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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