IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/rpbfmp/v04y2001i02ns0219091501000413.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Real Effects of Capital Inflows on Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Dekle

    (Department of Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA)

  • Cheng Hsiao

    (Department of Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA)

  • Siyan Wang

    (Department of Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA)

Abstract

We employ vector autoregression and cointegration estimation to examine the impact of net capital inflows on real exchange rates, output and real interest rates in several East Asian and Latin American economies during the 1990s. We find that increases in net capital inflows leads to appreciations of the real exchange rates in all the countries but have no impact on real output except for Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Dekle & Cheng Hsiao & Siyan Wang, 2001. "The Real Effects of Capital Inflows on Emerging Markets," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 165-202.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:rpbfmp:v:04:y:2001:i:02:n:s0219091501000413
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219091501000413
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219091501000413
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0219091501000413?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, January.
    2. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    3. Raddatz, Claudio, 2006. "Liquidity needs and vulnerability to financial underdevelopment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 677-722, June.
    4. Ayhan Kose, M. & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does openness to international financial flows raise productivity growth?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 554-580, June.
    5. Choong, Chee-Keong & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Yusop, Zulkornain & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2010. "Private capital flows, stock market and economic growth in developed and developing countries: A comparative analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 107-117, March.
    6. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
    7. Stijn Claessens & Luc Laeven, 2003. "Financial Development, Property Rights, and Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2401-2436, December.
    8. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    9. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2006. "An information-based trade off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 271-295, September.
    10. Kroszner, Randall S. & Laeven, Luc & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2007. "Banking crises, financial dependence, and growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 187-228, April.
    11. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    12. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    13. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Foreign direct investment as a catalyst for industrial development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 335-356, February.
    14. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2012. "Gross inflows gone wild : gross capital inflows, credit booms and crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6270, The World Bank.
    15. Luc Laeven & Fabián Valencia, 2013. "The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions during Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 147-177, February.
    16. Nicola Cetorelli & Michele Gambera, 2001. "Banking Market Structure, Financial Dependence and Growth: International Evidence from Industry Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 617-648, April.
    17. Ann E. Harrison & Inessa Love & Margaret S. McMillan, 2022. "Global capital flows and financing constraints," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 8, pages 181-213, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2011. "The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch During a Global Economic Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2023-2052.
    19. Jürgen Bitzer & Holger Görg, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment, Competition and Industry Performance," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 221-233, February.
    20. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "Capital flows to central and Eastern Europe," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 106-123, May.
    21. Helmut Reisen & Marcelo Soto, 2001. "Which Types of Capital Inflows Foster Developing‐Country Growth?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14.
    22. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2016. "When Do Capital Inflow Surges End in Tears?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 581-585, May.
    23. Stijn Claessens & Luc Laeven, 2005. "Financial Dependence, Banking Sector Competition, and Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 179-207, March.
    24. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    25. Inessa Love, 2003. "Financial Development and Financing Constraints: International Evidence from the Structural Investment Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 765-791, July.
    26. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 81-95.
    28. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010. "Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 642-665, June.
    29. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 1998. "Law, Finance, and Firm Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2107-2137, December.
    30. Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2003. "Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 142-163.
    31. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 1999. "Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving and Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 143-180.
    32. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Tian, Xuan & Xu, Yan, 2014. "Financial development and innovation: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 116-135.
    33. Beata Smarzynska Javorcik, 2004. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers Through Backward Linkages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 605-627, June.
    34. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, April.
    35. Paolo Mauro, 2007. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect Against "Sudden Stops"?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(3), pages 389-411, September.
    36. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Portugese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 143-210.
    37. Deniz Igan & Zhibo Tan, 2017. "Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2649-2671, December.
    38. Li, Xiaoying & Liu, Xiaming, 2005. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: An Increasingly Endogenous Relationship," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 393-407, March.
    39. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Gui-Diby, Steve Loris & Renard, Mary-Françoise, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and the Industrialization of African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 43-57.
    41. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven & Hui Tong, 2016. "Credit booms and macrofinancial stability," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(86), pages 299-355.
    42. Maskus, Keith E. & Neumann, Rebecca & Seidel, Tobias, 2012. "How national and international financial development affect industrial R&D," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 72-83.
    43. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Petia Topalova, 2013. "Capital Flows are Fickle: Anytime, Anywhere," IMF Working Papers 2013/183, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Durham, J.B.J. Benson, 2004. "Absorptive capacity and the effects of foreign direct investment and equity foreign portfolio investment on economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 285-306, April.
    45. Vu, Tam Bang & Noy, Ilan, 2009. "Sectoral analysis of foreign direct investment and growth in the developed countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 402-413, April.
    46. Mody, Ashoka & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2005. "Growing up with capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 249-266, January.
    47. Borja Larrain, 2006. "Do Banks Affect the Level and Composition of Industrial Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1897-1925, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Igan, Deniz & Kutan, Ali M. & Mirzaei, Ali, 2020. "The real effects of capital inflows in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 143-197.
    3. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2010. "Financial Globalization and Economic Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4283-4359, Elsevier.
    4. Thorsten Beck & Robin Döttling & Thomas Lambert & Mathijs Dijk, 2023. "Liquidity creation, investment, and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 297-336, June.
    5. William R. Cline, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 499, October.
    6. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    7. Maria Cipollina & Giorgia Giovannetti & Filomena Pietrovito & Alberto F. Pozzolo, 2012. "FDI and Growth: What Cross-country Industry Data Say," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(11), pages 1599-1629, November.
    8. Mélise Jaud & Madina Kukenova & Martin Strieborny, 2009. "Financial dependence and intensive margin of trade," PSE Working Papers halshs-00575005, HAL.
    9. Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2019. "Volatile capital flows and economic growth: The role of banking supervision," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 77-93.
    10. Alfaro, Laura & Charlton, Andrew, 2007. "Growth and the quality of foreign direct investment: is all FDI equal?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19666, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2015. "Volatile Capital Flows and Economic Growth: The Role of Macro-prudential Regulation," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 215, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    12. Igan, Deniz & Mirzaei, Ali, 2020. "Does going tough on banks make the going get tough? Bank liquidity regulations, capital requirements, and sectoral activity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 688-726.
    13. Zaiter Lahimer, Mahjouba, 2011. "L’impact des entrées de capitaux privés sur la croissance économique dans les pays en développement," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/7670 edited by Sterdyniak, Henri.
    14. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2014. "Does financial development volatility affect industrial growth volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 307-320.
    15. Assi Okara, 2022. "Building Stronger Economic Institutions in Developing Countries, the Role of FDI," Working Papers hal-03617915, HAL.
    16. Popov, Alexander, 2017. "Evidence on finance and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2115, European Central Bank.
    17. Natasha Agarwal & Chris Milner & Alejandro Riaño, 2011. "Credit Constraints and FDI Spillovers in China," Discussion Papers 11/21, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    18. Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik, 2014. "Banks, Financial Markets and Growth in Developed Countries: a Survey of the empirical literature," CPB Discussion Paper 266, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    19. Dalila NICET-CHENAF & Eric ROUGIER, 2009. "FDI and growth: A new look at a still puzzling issue," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2009-13, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    20. Diallo, Boubacar, 2018. "Bank efficiency and industry growth during financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 11-22.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Flow; Output; Exchange Rate; Vector Autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:rpbfmp:v:04:y:2001:i:02:n:s0219091501000413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/rpbfmp/rpbfmp.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.