Episodic Nonlinearity in Leading Global Currencies
AbstractWe perform non-linearity tests using daily data for leading currencies that include the Australian dollar, British pound, Brazilian real, Canadian dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Mexican peso, and the Swiss franc to resolve the issue of whether these currencies are driven by fundamentals or exogenous shocks to the global economy. In particular, we use a new method of testing for linear and nonlinear lead/lag relationships between time series, introduced by Brooks and Hinich (1999), based on the concepts of cross-correlation and cross-bicorrelation. Our evidence points to a relatively rare episodic nonlinearity within and across foreign exchange rates. We also test the validity of specifying ARCH-type error structures for foreign exchange rates. In doing so, we estimate BollerslevÂs (1986) general- ized ARCH (GARCH) model and NelsonÂs (1988) exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model,using a variety of error densities [including the normal, the Student-t distribution, and the Generalized Error Distribution (GED)] and a comprehensive set of diagnostic checks. We apply the Brooks and Hinich (1999) nonlinearity test to the standardized residuals of the optimal GARCH/EGARCH model for each exchange rate series and show that the nonlinearity in the exchange rates is not due to ARCH-type eÂ¤ects. This result has important implications for the interpretation of the recent voluminous literature which attempts to model fi nancial asset returns using this family of models.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.
Volume (Year): 23 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323
Global financial markets; Currencies; Episodic nonlinearity; Conditional heteroskedasticity; C22; C45; D40; G10; Q40;
Other versions of this item:
- Serletis, Apostolos & Malliaris, Anastasios & Hinich, Melvin & Gogas, Periklis, 2010. "Episodic Nonlinearity in Leading Global Currencies," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 3-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
- D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - General
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
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