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Dynamic futures hedging in currency markets

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Author Info
Atreya Chakraborty, John T. Barkoulas

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Abstract

The hedging effectiveness of dynamic strategies is compared with static (traditional) ones using futures contracts for the five leading currencies. The traditional hedging model assumes time invariance in the joint distribution of spot and futures price changes thus leading to a constant optimal hedge ratio (OHR). However, if this time-invariance assumption is violated, time-varying OHRs are appropriate for hedging purposes. A bivariate GARCH model is employed to estimate the joint distribution of spot and futures currency returns and the sequence of dynamic (time-varying) OHRs is constructed based upon the estimated parameters of the conditional covariance matrix. The empirical evidence strongly supports time-varying OHRs but the dynamic model provides superior out-of-sample hedging performance, compared to the static model, only for the Canadian dollar.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 5 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 299-314
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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:5:y:1999:i:4:p:299-314

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Related research
Keywords: Dynamic Hedging; Optimal Hedge Ratio; Bivariate Garch Model; Currency Futures;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  3. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Persistence in Conditional Variances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 167-86, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. G. Lypny, M. Powalla, 1998. "The hedging effectiveness of DAX futures," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 345-355, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Park, Tae H & Switzer, Lorne N, 1995. "Time-Varying Distributions and the Optimal Hedge Ratios for Stock Index Futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 131-37, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Figlewski, Stephen, 1984. " Hedging Performance and Basis Risk in Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 657-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. McCurdy, Thomas H. & Morgan, Ieuan G., 1987. "Tests of the martingale hypothesis for foreign currency futures with time-varying volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 131-148. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
    Other versions:
  14. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan G, 1988. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutsche Mark Futures with Models Specifying the Form of Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 187-202, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Geczy, Christopher & Minton, Bernadette A & Schrand, Catherine, 1997. " Why Firms Use Currency Derivatives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1323-54, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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