IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/97-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns Between Markets

Author

Listed:
  • David Watt

Abstract

This paper analyses how Canadian financial firms manage short-term interest rate risk through the use of BAX futures contracts. The results show that the most effective hedging strategy is, on average, a static strategy based on linear regression that assumes constant variances, even though dynamic models allowing for time-varying variances are found to have superior explanatory power. The results also show a rise in the correlation of the returns to three-month bankers' acceptances and three-month treasury bills with the returns to BAX futures contracts during periods of increased money market volatility, suggesting that hedging activity should increase during market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • David Watt, 1997. "Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns Between Markets," Staff Working Papers 97-18, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:97-18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp97-18.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988. "Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-630, November.
    4. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
    5. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-124, April-Jun.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    7. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, Decembrie.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    9. Leland L. Johnson, 1960. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 139-151.
    10. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    11. Peter S. Sephton, 1993. "Optimal Hedge Ratios at the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 175-193, February.
    12. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan G, 1988. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutsche Mark Futures with Models Specifying the Form of Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 187-202, July-Sept.
    13. Thomas H. McCurdy & Ieuan G. Morgan, 1991. "Tests for a Systematic Risk Component in Deviations From Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 587-602.
    14. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan, 1992. "Evidence of Risk Premiums in Foreign Currency Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 65-83.
    16. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Atreya Chakraborty & John Barkoulas, 1999. "Dynamic futures hedging in currency markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 299-314.
    2. Bessler, Wolfgang & Leonhardt, Alexander & Wolff, Dominik, 2016. "Analyzing hedging strategies for fixed income portfolios: A Bayesian approach for model selection," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 239-256.
    3. Gagnon, Louis & Lypny, Gregory J. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1998. "Hedging foreign currency portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 197-220, September.
    4. Chang, Chia-Lin & González-Serrano, Lydia & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel, 2013. "Currency hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 164-182.
    5. Menelaos Karanasos, "undated". "Some Exact Formulae for the Constant Correlation and Diagonal M - Garch Models," Discussion Papers 00/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
    6. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2011. "Crude oil hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 912-923, September.
    7. Pablo Urtubia & Alfonso Novales & Andrés Mora-Valencia, 2021. "Cross-Hedging Portfolios in Emerging Stock Markets: Evidence for the LATIBEX Index," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-19, October.
    8. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2022. "The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hedging functionality of Chinese financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6808 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Qu, Hui & Wang, Tianyang & Zhang, Yi & Sun, Pengfei, 2019. "Dynamic hedging using the realized minimum-variance hedge ratio approach – Examination of the CSI 300 index futures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    11. Vicente Meneu & Hipòlit Torró, 2003. "Asymmetric covariance in spot‐futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(11), pages 1019-1046, November.
    12. Donald Lien & Y. K. Tse & Albert Tsui, 2002. "Evaluating the hedging performance of the constant-correlation GARCH model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 791-798.
    13. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2015. "European natural gas seasonal effects on futures hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 154-168.
    14. Rozaimah Zainudin & Roselee Shah Shaharudin, 2011. "Multi Mean Garch Approach to Evaluating Hedging Performance in the Crude Palm Oil Futures Market," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 7(1), pages 111-130.
    15. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    16. Michael S. Haigh & Henry L. Bryant, 2000. "The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, June.
    17. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "Crack spread hedging: accounting for time-varying volatility spillovers in the energy futures markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 269-289.
    19. Kim Liow & Zhiwei Chen & Jingran Liu, 2011. "Multiple Regimes and Volatility Transmission in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 295-328, April.
    20. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Haigh, Michael S. & Bryant, Henry L., 2001. "The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, June.
    22. John Cotter & Jim Hanly, 2006. "Reevaluating hedging performance," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 677-702, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FINANCIAL MARKET ; INTEREST RATE;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:97-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.