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Learning in a Laboratory Market with Random Supply and Demand

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  • Timothy Cason

    ()

  • Daniel Friedman

Abstract

We propose a simple adaptive learning model to study behavior in the call market. The laboratory environment features buyers and sellers who receive a new random value or cost in each period, so they must learn a strategy that maps these random draws into bids or asks. We focus on buyers' adjustment of the “mark-down†ratio of bids relative to private value and sellers' adjustment of the corresponding “mark-up†ratio of asks relative to private cost. The learning model involves partial adjustment of these ratios towards the ex post optimum each period. The model explains a substantial proportion of the variation in traders' strategies. Parameter estimates indicate strong recency effects and negligible autonomous trend, but strongly asymmetric response to different kinds of ex post error. The asymmetry is only slightly attenuated in “observational learning†from other traders' ex post errors. Simulations show that the model can account for the main systematic deviations from equilibrium predictions observed in this market institution and environment. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1009981800289
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Experimental Economics.

Volume (Year): 2 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Pages: 77-98

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Handle: RePEc:kap:expeco:v:2:y:1999:i:1:p:77-98

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102888

Related research

Keywords: experiment; call market; auction; bidding;

References

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  1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Friedman, Daniel, 1997. "Individual Learning in Normal Form Games: Some Laboratory Results," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 46-76, April.
  2. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 1998. "Learning in Games," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2222, David K. Levine.
  3. Aldo Rustichini, 1992. "Convergence to Efficiency in a Simple Market with Incomplete Information," Discussion Papers 995, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  4. Gode, D.K. & Sunder, S., 1991. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero Intelligence (Z1) Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," GSIA Working Papers 1992-16, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  5. C. Monica Capra & Jacob K. Goeree & Rosario Gomez & Charles A. Holt, 2000. "Learning and Noisy Equilibrium Behavior in an Experimental Study of Imperfect Price Competition," Virginia Economics Online Papers 336, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
  6. Satterthwaite, Mark A & Williams, Steven R, 1989. "The Rate of Convergence to Efficiency in the Buyer's Bid Double Auction as the Market Becomes Large," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 477-98, October.
  7. Smith, Vernon L & Walker, James M, 1993. "Rewards, Experience and Decision Costs in First Price Auctions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 237-45, April.
  8. Colin Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho, 1999. "Experience-weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 827-874, July.
  9. Selten, Reinhard & Joachim Buchta, 1994. "Experimental Sealed Bid First Price Auctions with Directly Observed Bid Functions," Discussion Paper Serie B 270, University of Bonn, Germany.
  10. Timothy N. Cason & Daniel Friedman, 1997. "Price Formation in Single Call Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(2), pages 311-346, March.
  11. McCabe, Kevin A & Rassenti, Stephen J & Smith, Vernon L, 1992. "Designing Call Auction Institutions: Is Double Dutch the Best?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(410), pages 9-23, January.
  12. A. Roth & I. Er’ev, 2010. "Learning in Extensive Form Games: Experimental Data and Simple Dynamic Models in the Intermediate Run," Levine's Working Paper Archive 387, David K. Levine.
  13. Friedman, Daniel & Ostroy, Joseph, 1995. "Competitivity in Auction Markets: An Experimental and Theoretical Investigation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 22-53, January.
  14. Garvin, Susan & Kagel, John H., 1994. "Learning in common value auctions: Some initial observations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 351-372, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Enrique Fatas & Tibor Neugebauer & Javier Perote, 2005. "Within-Team Competition in the Minimum Effort Coordination Game," Experimental 0503006, EconWPA.
  2. P.B. Rakhe, 2003. "Estimation of tax leakage and its impact on fiscal health in Kerala," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 347, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
  3. Neugebauer, Tibor & Selten, Reinhard, 2006. "Individual behavior of first-price auctions: The importance of information feedback in computerized experimental markets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 183-204, January.
  4. Axel Ockenfels & Reinhard Selten, 2002. "Impulse Balance Equilibrium and Feedback in First Price Auctions," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-12, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  5. Zhan, Wenjie & Friedman, Daniel, 2007. "Markups in double auction markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2984-3005, September.
  6. Rakhe PB, 2010. "Estimation of Tax Leakage and its Impact on Fiscal Health in Kerala," Working Papers id:3085, eSocialSciences.
  7. Oprea, Ryan & Friedman, Daniel & Anderson, Steven T, 2007. "A Laboratory Investigation of Deferral Options," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt15t887m9, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  8. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Investment and Disinvestment in Irrigation Technology – An Experimental Analysis of Farmers’ Decision Behavior –," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124532, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  9. Andrew Schotter & Allan Corns, 1999. "Can Affirmative Action Be Cost Effective? An Experimental Examination of Price-Preference Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 291-305, March.
  10. Steven T. Anderson & Daniel Friedman & Ryan Oprea, 2010. "Preemption Games: Theory and Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1778-1803, September.

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