A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction
AbstractA choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation experiment, and a competition experiment. The two experiments use the same methods and subject pool, and examine games randomly selected from the same distribution. The current introductory paper presents the results of the estimation experiment, and clarifies the descriptive value of several baseline models. The experimental results reveal the robustness of eight behavioral tendencies that were documented in previous studies of market entry games and individual decisions from experience. The best baseline model (I-SAW) assumes reliance on small samples of experiences, and strong inertia when the recent results are not surprising. The competition experiment will be run in May 2010 (after the completion of this introduction), but they will not be revealed until September. To participate in the competition, researchers are asked to E-mail the organizers models (implemented in computer programs) that read the incentive structure as input, and derive the predicted behavior as an output. The submitted models will be ranked based on their prediction error. The winners of the competition will be invited to publish a paper that describes their model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MDPI, Open Access Journal in its journal Games.
Volume (Year): 1 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.mdpi.com/
reinforcement learning; excess entry; recency; surprise triggers change; inertia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
- C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
- C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
- C71 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Cooperative Games
- C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
- C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Eyal Ert & Ido Erev & Alvin E. Roth, 2011. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 257-276, July.
- Eyal Ert & Ido Erev, 2013. "On the descriptive value of loss aversion in decisions under risk: Six clarifications," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(3), pages 214-235, May.
- Zion, Uri Ben & Erev, Ido & Haruvy, Ernan & Shavit, Tal, 2010. "Adaptive behavior leads to under-diversification," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 985-995, December.
- Wei Chen & Shu-Yu Liu & Chih-Han Chen & Yi-Shan Lee, 2011. "Bounded Memory, Inertia, Sampling and Weighting Model for Market Entry Games," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 187-199, March.
- Mikhail Anufriev & D?vid Kop?nyiz & Jan Tuinstra, 2013. "Learning Cycles in Bertrand Competition with Differentiated Commodities and Competing Learning Rules," Working Paper Series 8, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Luke Lindsay, 2011. "Correlated Individual Differences and Choice Prediction," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 16-20, February.
- Thorsten Chmura & Sebastian Goerg & Reinhard Selten, 2011. "Learning in experimental 2 x 2 games," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2011_26, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
- Ion Juvina & Christian Lebiere & Jolie M. Martin & Cleotilde Gonzalez, 2011. "Intergroup Prisoner’s Dilemma with Intragroup Power Dynamics," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 21-51, February.
- Cleotilde Gonzalez & Varun Dutt & Tomás Lejarraga, 2011. "A Loser Can Be a Winner: Comparison of Two Instance-based Learning Models in a Market Entry Competition," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 136-162, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (XML Conversion Team).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.