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A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

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Author Info

  • Ido Erev

    ()
    (Max Wertheimer Minerva Center for Cognitive Studies, Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion, Haifa 32000, Israel)

  • Eyal Ert

    ()
    (Computer Laboratory for Experimental Research, Harvard Business School, Boston, MA, 02163, USA)

  • Alvin E. Roth

    ()
    (Department of Economics, 308 Littauer, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
    Harvard Business School, 441 Baker Library, Boston, MA 02163, USA)

Abstract

A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation experiment, and a competition experiment. The two experiments use the same methods and subject pool, and examine games randomly selected from the same distribution. The current introductory paper presents the results of the estimation experiment, and clarifies the descriptive value of several baseline models. The experimental results reveal the robustness of eight behavioral tendencies that were documented in previous studies of market entry games and individual decisions from experience. The best baseline model (I-SAW) assumes reliance on small samples of experiences, and strong inertia when the recent results are not surprising. The competition experiment will be run in May 2010 (after the completion of this introduction), but they will not be revealed until September. To participate in the competition, researchers are asked to E-mail the organizers models (implemented in computer programs) that read the incentive structure as input, and derive the predicted behavior as an output. The submitted models will be ranked based on their prediction error. The winners of the competition will be invited to publish a paper that describes their model.

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File URL: http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4336/1/2/117/pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MDPI, Open Access Journal in its journal Games.

Volume (Year): 1 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 117-136

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Handle: RePEc:gam:jgames:v:1:y:2010:i:2:p:117-136:d:8348

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Web page: http://www.mdpi.com/

Related research

Keywords: reinforcement learning; excess entry; recency; surprise triggers change; inertia;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thorsten Chmura & Sebastian Goerg & Reinhard Selten, 2011. "Learning in experimental 2 x 2 games," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2011_26, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
  2. Wei Chen & Shu-Yu Liu & Chih-Han Chen & Yi-Shan Lee, 2011. "Bounded Memory, Inertia, Sampling and Weighting Model for Market Entry Games," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 187-199, March.
  3. Cleotilde Gonzalez & Varun Dutt & Tomás Lejarraga, 2011. "A Loser Can Be a Winner: Comparison of Two Instance-based Learning Models in a Market Entry Competition," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 136-162, March.
  4. Lindner, Florian, 2014. "Decision time and steps of reasoning in a competitive market entry game," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 7-11.
  5. Mikhail Anufriev & Dávid Kopányiz & Jan Tuinstra, 2013. "Learning Cycles in Bertrand Competition with Differentiated Commodities and Competing Learning Rules," Working Paper Series 8, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  6. Luke Lindsay, 2011. "Correlated Individual Differences and Choice Prediction," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 16-20, February.
  7. Eyal Ert & Ido Erev & Alvin E. Roth, 2011. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 257-276, July.
  8. Sebastian J. Goerg & Thorsten Chmura & Reinhard Selten, 2008. "Learning in experimental 2×2 games," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse18_2008, University of Bonn, Germany.
  9. Ion Juvina & Christian Lebiere & Jolie M. Martin & Cleotilde Gonzalez, 2011. "Intergroup Prisoner’s Dilemma with Intragroup Power Dynamics," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 21-51, February.
  10. Thierry Madiès & Marie Claire Villeval & Malgorzata Wasmer, 2013. "Intergenerational Attitudes Towards Strategic Uncertainty and Competition: A Field Experiment in a Swiss Bank," Post-Print halshs-00807436, HAL.
  11. Zion, Uri Ben & Erev, Ido & Haruvy, Ernan & Shavit, Tal, 2010. "Adaptive behavior leads to under-diversification," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 985-995, December.
  12. Eyal Ert & Ido Erev, 2013. "On the descriptive value of loss aversion in decisions under risk: Six clarifications," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(3), pages 214-235, May.

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