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Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market

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Author Info
David M. Geltner () (Department of Finance College of Business Administration University of Cincinnati Cincinnati, Ohio 45221-0195)
Abstract

This paper represents an approach to recovering the underlying market value returns from observable appraisal-based index returns, without presupposing or constraining the market value returns to be unpredictable or uncorrelated across time. A structural/behavioral model is developed relating the publicly reported index returns to the underlying market returns. The procedure presented here explicitly corrects for appraisal smoothing at the disaggregate level, as well as for the aggregate index construction effects of temporal aggregation and seasonality of reappraisals. This procedure is applied to the Russell-NCREIF and Evaluation Associates Index returns to generate estimated series of market values and market returns for unsecuritized institutional-grade commercial properties in the United States.

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File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol08n03/v08p325.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 8 (1993)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 325-346
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:8:n:3:1993:p:325-346

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Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 3368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. David Geltner, 1989. "Estimating Real Estate's Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal-Based Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 463-481. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, . "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns? (Revision of 18-91) (Reprint 030)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  5. Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-64, September.
  6. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, 1992. "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 457-485. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. S. Michael Giliberto, 1990. "Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts and Real Estate Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(2), pages 259-264. [Downloadable!]
  8. Patric Hendershott & Edward J. Kane, 1992. "Office Market Values During the Past Decade: How Distorted Have Appraisals Been?," NBER Working Papers 4128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-46, June.
  10. Ross, Stephen A & Zisler, Randall C, 1991. "Risk and Return in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 175-90, June.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jaroslaw Morawski & Heinz Rehkugler & Roland Füss, 2008. "The nature of listed real estate companies: property or equity market?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 101-126, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Khalid Sekkat & Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "Valuing Homeownership," Working Papers CEB 09-006.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Raimond Maurer, 2003. "Institutional Investors in Germany: Insurance Companies and Investment Funds," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/14, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jeff Fisher & David Geltner & Henry Pollakowski, 2007. "A Quarterly Transactions-based Index of Institutional Real Estate Investment Performance and Movements in Supply and Demand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 5-33, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jinliang Li & Robert M. Mooradian & Shiawee X. Yang, 2009. "The Information Content of the NCREIF Index," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(1), pages 93-116. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ping Cheng & Alan J. Ziobrowski & Royce W. Caines & Brigette J. Ziobrowski, 1999. "Uncertainty and Foreign Real Estate Investment," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 463-480. [Downloadable!]
  7. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and risk diversification in real estate investments: assessing the ex post economic value," Working Papers 2009-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Martin Hoesli & Jon Lekander & Witold Witkiewicz, 2004. "New International Evidence on Real Estate as a Portfolio Diversifier," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(2), pages 161-206. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jim Clayton, 1996. "Market Fundamentals, Risk and the Canadian Property Cycle: Implications for Property Valuation and Investment Decisions," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 347-368. [Downloadable!]
  10. Georges Gallais-Hamonno & Huyen Nguyen-Thi-Thanh, 2007. "The necessity to correct hedge fund returns: empirical evidence and correction method," Working Papers halshs-00184470_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alan J. Ziobrowski & Harry McAlum & Brigitte J. Ziobrowski, 1996. "Taxes and Foreign Real Estate Investment," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 11(2), pages 197-213. [Downloadable!]
  12. Huyen Nguyen-Thi-Thanh & Georges Gallais-Hamonno & Thi H.V. Hoang, 2008. "Faut-il corriger les rentabilités des hedge funds?," Post-Print halshs-00106400_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  13. Joseph L. Pagliari, Jr. & James R. Webb, 1995. "A Fundamental Examination of Securitized and Unsecuritized Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(4), pages 381-426. [Downloadable!]
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