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Random Disaggregate Appraisal Error in Commercial Property: Evidence from the Russell-NCREIF Database

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Abstract

This paper examines the magnitude of random disaggregate appraisal valuation error in institutional-grade commercial property. Unlike previous transactions-based studies of appraisal error, we use a much larger database that is not restricted to sold properties, and we employ a methodology that focuses on appraisal error rather than the difference between transaction price and previous appraised value. Our model gives a point estimate of 11.07% for the standard error of appraisals in the Russell-NCREIF database, with a robust range of 6% to 13%.

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File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol09n04/v09p403.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 9 (1994)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 403-420

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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:9:n:4:1994:p:403-420

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Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

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Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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  1. David J. Hartzell & David G. Shulma & Vice President, 1987. "Refining the Analysis of Regional Diversification for Income-Producing Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 2(2), pages 85-95.
  2. Mike Miles & Rebel Cole & David Guilkey, 1990. "A Different Look at Commercial Real Estate Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 403-430.
  3. James R. Follairi, 1989. "Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 231-234.
  4. Damodaran, Aswath & Liu, Crocker H, 1993. "Insider Trading as a Signal of Private Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 79-119.
  5. David Hartzell & John Hekman & Mike Miles, 1986. "Diversification Categories in Investment Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 230-254.
  6. Daniel C. Quan & John M. Quigley, 1989. "Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 218-230.
  7. Kerry D. Vandell, 1991. "Optimal Comparable Selection and Weighting in Real Property Valuation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 213-239.
  8. Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-64, September.
  9. R. Brian Webb & Mike Miles & David Guilkey, 1992. "Transactions-Driven Commercial Real Estate Returns: The Panacea to Asset Allocation Models?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 325-357.
  10. Young, Michael S & Graff, Richard A, 1995. "Real Estate Is Not Normal: A Fresh Look at Real Estate Return Distributions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 225-59, May.
  11. David Geltner, 1989. "Estimating Real Estate's Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal-Based Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 463-481.
  12. Ross, Stephen A & Zisler, Randall C, 1991. "Risk and Return in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 175-90, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Chihiro Shimizu & Kiyohiko Nishimura, 2007. "Pricing Structure in Tokyo Metropolitan Land Markets and its Structural Changes: Pre-bubble, Bubble, and Post-bubble Periods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 475-496, November.

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