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Housing Investment and the U.S. Economy: How Have the Relationships Changed?

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  • William Miles

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    (Wichita State University)

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    Abstract

    Previous research has found that housing investment has a disproportionate role in the U.S. business cycle. This paper demonstrates that the relationship between housing and the rest of the economy has changed since financial deregulation and innovation in the early1980s. In particular, residential investment increases both consumption, as well as non-residential investment palpably more than in years past. Additionally, in the pre-deregulation years, non-residential investment appeared to crowd out housing activity. However, the results indicate that this effect is smaller in the present era than before the early 1980s, in all likelihood due to the switch from thrift-based financing of home mortgages to the current system in which secondary mortgage markets play a predominant role.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol31n03/04.329_350.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 329-350

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:31:n:3:2009:p:329-350

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    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

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    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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    1. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
    5. Richard K. Green, 1996. "Follow the Leader: How Changes In Residential and Non-Residential Investment Predict Changes in GDP," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 96-05, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
    6. Bradley, Michael G & Gabriel, Stuart A & Wohar, Mark E, 1995. "The Thrift Crisis, Mortgage-Credit Intermediation, and Housing Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 476-97, May.
    7. Paul R. Goebel & Christopher K. Ma, 1993. "The Integration of Mortgage Markets and Capital Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 511-538.
    8. Edwin S. Mills, 1987. "Has the United States Overinvested in Housing?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 601-616.
    9. Ronald W. Kaiser, 1997. "The Long Cycle of Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 233-258.
    10. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Stephen E. Roulac & Waldo L. Born, 1999. "Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and Portfolio Managers in the Global Economy," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 7-68.
    11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
    12. N. Edward Coulson & Myeong-Soo Kim, 2000. "Residential Investment, Non-residential Investment and GDP," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 233-247.
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