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The Long Cycle of Real Estate

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    Abstract

    The experience of the 1985-93 boom/bust in real estate has left industry players nervous about when it might happen again. This paper examines the possible causes and the periodicity of such major real estate cycles. A search of the literature for return evidence from this century suggests that there was only one other period of negative total returns for national real estate - the late 1920s and early 1930s. The evidence suggests that both periods of negative returns were caused by excessive levels of new construction, induced by an unusual rise in NOI, which in turn was the result of an inflation spike in the general level of prices. Evidence from even earlier periods suggests a periodicity for such real estate boom/busts of some 50 to 60 years. Perhaps the caution of today's Federal Reserve Board about containing inflation means that we will not likely see another boom/bust period for real estate during the remainder of our careers.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol14n03/v14p233.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 14 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 233-258

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:14:n:3:1997:p:233-258

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    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

    Order Information:
    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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    Cited by:
    1. Devaney, Steven, 2010. "Trends in office rents in the City of London: 1867-1959," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 198-212, April.
    2. William Miles, 2009. "Housing Investment and the U.S. Economy: How Have the Relationships Changed?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(3), pages 329-350.
    3. Robert Edelstein & Desmond Tsang, 2007. "Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 295-313, October.

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