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Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Housing Investment

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  • William Miles

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    Abstract

    Housing represents a form of “irreversible” investment. Theoretically, increased uncertainty should lower housing investment. Empirically, finding a proxy for uncertainty has proven problematic. Some recent papers have investigated the effect of uncertainty on real estate investment, with varying proxies for uncertainty and mixed results. This paper employs a technique used in modern macroeconomic studies, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean model, which has been shown to correspond as closely as any known measure to theoretical concepts of uncertainty. Results indicate that uncertainty indeed has a negative impact on housing starts. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-007-9087-x
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 173-182

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:38:y:2009:i:2:p:173-182

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

    Related research

    Keywords: Housing; Investment; Irreversibility;

    References

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    1. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. N. Edward Coulson & Christian Richard, 1996. "The Dynamic Impact of Unseasonable Weather on Construction Activity," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 179-194.
    4. Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.
    5. Kevin B. Grier & �lan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
    6. Norman Miller & Liang Peng, 2006. "Exploring Metropolitan Housing Price Volatility," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 5-18, August.
    7. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
    8. C. Tsuriel Somerville, 2001. "Permits, Starts, and Completions: Structural Relationships Versus Real Options," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 161-190.
    9. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
    10. Nick Bloom, 2006. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Firm Level Estimation and a 9/11 Simulation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0718, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Coulson, N Edward, 1999. "Housing Inventory and Completion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 89-105, January.
    12. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    13. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    14. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
    15. Richard K. Green, 1997. "Follow the Leader: How Changes in Residential and Non-residential Investment Predict Changes in GDP," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 253-270.
    16. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-75, June.
    17. A. Steven Holland & Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough, 2000. "The Role of Uncertainty in Investment: An Examination of Competing Investment Models Using Commercial Real Estate Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 33-64.
    18. Mayer, Christopher J. & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2000. "Residential Construction: Using the Urban Growth Model to Estimate Housing Supply," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 85-109, July.
    19. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
    20. Rena Sivitanidou & Petros Sivitanides, 2000. "Does the Theory of Irreversible Investments Help Explain Movements in Office-Commercial Construction?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(4), pages 623-661.
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    Cited by:
    1. Gottlieb, Paul D. & O’Donnell, Anthony & Rudel, Thomas & O’Neill, Karen & McDermott, Melanie, 2012. "Determinants of local housing growth in a multi-jurisdictional region, along with a test for nonmarket zoning," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 296-309.

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