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Screening Mortgage Default Risk: A Unified Theoretical Framework

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  • Danny Ben-Shahar

    ()
    (The Arison School of Business, The Interdisciplianry Center Herzliya, P.O. Box 167, Herxljya 46150 Israel)

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    Abstract

    This study developed a unified framework for theoretically analyzing a set of mortgage attributes that screens borrower types according to their unobservable default risk. In the presence of asymmetric information, a self-selection process is attained, where lower default risk type borrowers choose a mortgage loan with constant over graduated payment, constant over price-leveladjusted payment, adjustable over fixed rate, low over high loanto-value ratio, and short over long maturity. The study thus examines, among others, various mortgage attributes, which have never previously been considered in the context of mortgage default under asymmetric information. Accordingly, the theoretical predictions produce further grounds for empirical research on mortgage default.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol28n03/01.215_240.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 215-240

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:28:n:3:2006:p:215-240

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    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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    References

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    1. Peter M. Zorn & Michael J. Lea, 1989. "Mortgage Borrower Repayment Behavior: A Microeconomic Analysis with Canadian Adjustable Rate Mortgage Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 118-136.
    2. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
    3. Quigley, John M & Van Order, Robert, 1995. "Explicit Tests of Contingent Claims Models of Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 99-117, September.
    4. Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1991. "Defaults on mortgage obligations and capital requirements for U.S. savings institutions : A policy perspective," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 353-369, April.
    5. Yezer, Anthony M J & Phillips, Robert F & Trost, Robert P, 1994. "Bias in Estimates of Discrimination and Default in Mortgage Lending: The Effects of Simultaneity and Self-Selection," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 197-215, November.
    6. Tyler T. Yang & Henry Buist & Isaac F. Megbolugbe, 1998. "An Analysis of the "Ex Ante" Probabilities of Mortgage Prepayment and Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 651-676.
    7. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 630-49, November.
    8. Vandell, Kerry D, 1978. "Default Risk under Alternative Mortgage Instruments," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(5), pages 1279-96, December.
    9. James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Taewon Kim, 1993. "Transaction Costs, Suboptimal Termination and Default Probabilities," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 247-263.
    10. Cunningham, Donald F & Capone, Charles A, Jr, 1990. " The Relative Termination Experience of Adjustable to Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1687-1703, December.
    11. Chester Foster & Robert Order, 1985. "FHA Terminations: A Prelude to Rational Mortgage Pricing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 273-291.
    12. Ben-Shahar, Danny & Feldman, David, 2003. "Signaling-Screening Equilibrium in the Mortgage Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 157-78, March-May.
    13. Dennis R. Capozza & Dick Kazarian & Thomas A. Thomson, 1997. "Mortgage Default in Local Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 631-655.
    14. Spence, A Michael, 1973. "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 355-74, August.
    15. Posey, Lisa L. & Yavas, Abdullah, 2001. "Adjustable and Fixed Rate Mortgages as a Screening Mechanism for Default Risk," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 54-79, January.
    16. Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1991. "A real, affordable mortgage," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 51-66.
    17. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C., 1999. "Patterns of rational default," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 765-785, November.
    18. David M. Harrison & Thomas G. Noordewier & Abdullah Yavas, 2004. "Do Riskier Borrowers Borrow More?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 385-411, 09.
    19. Yongheng Deng, . "Mortgage Termination: An Empirical Hazard Model with Stochastic Term Structure," Working Papers _002, University of California at Berkeley, Econometrics Laboratory Software Archive.
    20. James VanderHoff, 1996. "Adjustable and Fixed Rate Mortgage Termination, Option Values and Local Market Conditions: An Empirical Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(3), pages 379-406.
    21. von Furstenberg, George M, 1969. "Default Risk on FHA-Insured Home Mortgages as a Function of the Terms of Financing: A Quantitative Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 24(3), pages 459-77, June.
    22. Kerry D. Vandell & Thomas Thibodeau, 1985. "Estimation of Mortgage Defaults Using Disaggregate Loan History Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 292-316.
    23. T. L. Tyler Yang, 1992. "Self-Selection in the Fixed-Rate Mortgage Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 359-391.
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