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Lender Forbearance: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency Patterns

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  • Thomas M. Springer
  • Neil G. Waller

Abstract

The length of time that residential mortgages remain in delinquency prior to foreclosure is examined using an Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model and a database of 207 foreclosed conventional and Veteran's Administration (VA) mortgages. The results suggest that the primary factors influencing the timing of the lender's foreclosure decision are the borrower's equity position and the erosion of that position with continuing delinquency. Borrower bankruptcy and VA guarantees also lengthen the delinquency period. Delinquency periods for fixed rate mortgages (FRM) decrease when the market interest rate increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M. Springer & Neil G. Waller, 1993. "Lender Forbearance: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency Patterns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 27-46, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:21:y:1993:i:1:p:27-46
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00602
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    1. Jun Chen & Yongheng Deng, 2013. "Commercial Mortgage Workout Strategy and Conditional Default Probability: Evidence from Special Serviced CMBS Loans," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 609-632, May.
    2. Chris Cunningham & Kristopher Gerardi & Yannan Shen, 2017. "Fracking and Mortgage Default," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Souphala Chomsisengphet & Ronel Elul, 2005. "Bankruptcy exemptions, credit history, and the mortgage market," Working Papers 04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2004. "Income Volatility and Residential Mortgage Delinquency: Evidence from 12 EU Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 1396, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "Income volatility and residential mortgage delinquency across the EU," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 153-177, September.
    6. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Why don't Lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures and securitization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 835-853.
    7. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William & Satchell, Stephen, 1997. "Time to default in the UK mortgage market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 485-499, October.
    8. Ramya Rajajagadeesan Aroul & Sanjiv Sabherwal & Sergiy Saydometov, 2022. "FEAR Index, city characteristics, and housing returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 173-205, March.
    9. Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Elul, Ronel, 2006. "Bankruptcy exemptions, credit history, and the mortgage market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 171-188, January.
    10. Jackson T. Anderson & David M. Harrison & Michael J. Seiler, 2022. "Reducing Strategic Forbearance under the CARES Act: an Experimental Approach Utilizing Recourse Attestation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 230-260, August.
    11. Chintal Desai & Gregory Elliehausen & Jevgenijs Steinbuks, 2013. "Effects of Bankruptcy Exemptions and Foreclosure Laws on Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Rates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 391-415, October.

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