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Risk of catastrophic terrorism: an extreme value approach

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Author Info
Hamid Mohtadi
Antu Panini Murshid (Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, USA)

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Abstract

This paper models the stochastic behavior of large-scale terrorism using extreme value methods. We utilize a unique dataset composed of roughly 26,000 observations. These data provide a rich description of domestic and international terrorism between 1968 and 2006. Currently, a credible worst-case scenario would involve losses of about 5000 to 10,000 lives. Also, the return time for events of such magnitude is shortening every year. Today, the primary threat is from conventional weapons, rather than from chemical, biological and|or radionuclear weapons. However, pronounced tails in the distribution of these incidents suggest that this threat cannot be dismissed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.1066
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2009-v24.4/
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 24 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 537-559
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:24:y:2009:i:4:p:537-559

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  1. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1007-1032, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March. [Downloadable!]
  3. Neil Johnson & Michael Spagat & Jorge A. Restrepo & Nicolás Suárez, 2005. "From old wars to new wars and global terrorism," DOCUMENTOS DE ECONOMÍA 002745, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kunreuther, Howard & Meszaros, Jacqueline & Hogarth, Robin M. & Spranca, Mark, 1995. "Ambiguity and underwriter decision processes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 337-352, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1996. "Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment in Spain and Greece," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(3), pages 331-52.
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-21.

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