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From old wars to new wars and global terrorism

Author

Listed:
  • Neil Johnson
  • Michael Spagat
  • Jorge A. Restrepo
  • Nicolás Suárez

Abstract

The 9/11 attacks created an urgent need to understand contemporary wars and their relationship to older conventional and terrorist wars, both of which exhibit remarkable regularities. The frequency-intensity distribution of fatalities in "old wars", 1816-1980, is a power-law with exponent 1.80. Global terrorist attacks, 1968-present, also follow a power-law with exponent 1.71 for G7 countries and 2.5 for non-G7 countries. Here we analyze two ongoing, high-profile wars on opposite sides of the globe - Colombia and Iraq. Our analysis uses our own unique dataset for killings and injuries in Colombia, plus publicly available data for civilians killed in Iraq. We show strong evidence for power-law behavior within each war. Despite substantial differences in contexts and data coverage, the power-law coefficients for both wars are tending toward 2.5, which is a value characteristic of non-G7 terrorism as opposed to old wars. We propose a plausible yet analytically-solvable model of modern insurgent warfare, which can explain these observations.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil Johnson & Michael Spagat & Jorge A. Restrepo & Nicolás Suárez, 2005. "From old wars to new wars and global terrorism," Documentos de Economía 2745, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000108:002745
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    File URL: http://www.javeriana.edu.co/fcea/area_economia/inv/documents/Fromoldwarstonewwarsandglobalterrorism.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cederman, Lars-Erik, 2003. "Modeling the Size of Wars: From Billiard Balls to Sandpiles," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 135-150, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aaron Clauset & Frederik W. Wiegel, 2010. "A Generalized Aggregation-Disintegration Model for the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Attacks," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(1), pages 179-197, February.
    2. Alvarez-Ramirez Jose & Rodriguez Eduardo & Tyrtania Leonardo & Urrea-Garcìa Galo R, 2010. "Regime-Transitions in the 2003-2010 Iraq War: An Approach Based on Correlations of Daily Fatalities," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-41, December.
    3. Alvarez-Ramirez, J. & Ibarra-Valdez, C. & Rodriguez, E. & Urrea, R., 2007. "Fractality and time correlation in contemporary war," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1039-1049.
    4. Hamid Mohtadi, 2017. "Risk‐Mitigating Policies and Adversarial Behavior: Case of Backlash," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 459-470, March.
    5. Hamid Mohtadi & Antu Panini Murshid, 2009. "Risk of catastrophic terrorism: an extreme value approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 537-559.
    6. Michael Spagat & Neil F Johnson & Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Fundamental patterns and predictions of event size distributions in modern wars and terrorist campaigns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-13, October.
    7. Mohamed Ayadi & Mohamed Salah Matoussi, 2007. "The Impact of Higher Water Costs on the Export of Tunisian Dates and Citrus," Working Papers 718, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Jan 2007.
    8. Aaron Clauset & Maxwell Young & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2007. "On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(1), pages 58-87, February.
    9. Hamid Mohtadi & Swati Agiwal, 2012. "Optimal Security Investments and Extreme Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(8), pages 1309-1325, August.
    10. Hamid Mohtadi & Antu Panini Murshid, 2009. "Risk Analysis of Chemical, Biological, or Radionuclear Threats: Implications for Food Security," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(9), pages 1317-1335, September.
    11. Hamid Mohtadi & Bryan S. Weber, 2021. "Catastrophe And Rational Policy: Case Of National Security," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 140-161, January.
    12. Marcovina Marco & Pellero Bruno, 2015. "A Mathematical Analysis of Domestic Terrorist Activity in the Years of Lead in Italy," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 351-389, August.

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