The risk of catastrophic terrorism: an extreme value approach
AbstractThis paper models the stochastic behavior of large-scale terrorism using extreme value methods. We utilize a unique dataset composed of roughly 26,000 observations. These data provide a rich description of domestic and international terrorism between 1968 and 2006. Currently, a credible worst-case scenario would involve losses of about 5000 to 10,000 lives. Also, the return time for events of such magnitude is shortening every year. Today, the primary threat is from conventional weapons, rather than from chemical, biological and/or radionuclear weapons. However, pronounced tails in the distribution of these incidents suggest that this threat cannot be dismissed.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 25738.
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
CBRN; extreme value theory; risk; terrorism;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
- H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
- C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
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