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Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening?

Author

Listed:
  • Walter Enders

    (Department of Economics, Finance and Legal Studies, University of Alabama)

  • Todd Sandler

    (Department of Economics, School of International Relations, University of Southern California)

Abstract

This study applies time-series techniques to investigate the current threat posed by transnational terrorist incidents. Although the number of incidents has dropped dramatically during the post-cold war period, transnational terrorism still presents a significant threat. In recent years, each incident is almost 17 percentage points more likely to result in death or injuries. Three alternative casualties series (incidents with injuries and/or deaths, the proportion of incidents with casualties, and incidents with deaths) are investigated. These series increased in November 1979 with the takeover of the U.S. embassy in Tehran and again after the fourth quarter of 1991. The growth of religious terrorism appears to account for the increased severity of terrorist attacks since the last quarter of 1991. All three casualties series displayed more deterministic factors than the noncasualties series, which is largely random after detrending. Cycles in the aggregate incident series are solely attributable to the underlying casualties series.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(3), pages 307-332, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:44:y:2000:i:3:p:307-332
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002700044003002
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Iksoon Im & Jon Cauley & Todd Sandler, 1987. "Cycles and Substitutions in Terrorist Activities: A Spectral Approach," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 238-255, May.
    2. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1998. "Transnational Terrorism in the Post-Cold War Era," ISU General Staff Papers 199804010800001308, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1996. "Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment in Spain and Greece," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 331-352.
    4. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 1996. "Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment in Spain and Greece," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 331-352, August.
    5. Im, Eric Iksoon & Cauley, Jon & Sandler, Todd, 1987. "Cycles and Substitutions in Terrorist Activities: A Spectral Approach," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 238-255.
    6. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1995. "Terrorism: Theory and applications," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 213-249, Elsevier.
    7. Sandler,Todd & Hartley,Keith, 1995. "The Economics of Defense," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521447287.
    8. Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John T. & Cauley, Jon, 1983. "A Theoretical Analysis of Transnational Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 36-54, March.
    9. Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of Defense Economics," Handbook of Defense Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    10. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1993. "The Effectiveness of Antiterrorism Policies: A Vector-Autoregression-Intervention Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(4), pages 829-844, December.
    11. Sandler, Todd & Lapan, Harvey E., 1988. "The Calculus of Dissent: An Analysis of Terrorists' Choice of Targets," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10818, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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