The Interdependence Between Homeland Security Efforts of a State and a Terroristâ€™s Choice of Attack
AbstractConsider a state that chooses security levels at two sites (Targets A and B), after which a terrorist chooses which site to attack (and potentially a scope of attack). The state values A more highly. If the state knows which target the terrorist values more highly, he will choose a higher level of security at this site. Under complete information, if the terroristâ€™s only choice is which site to attack, the state will set security levels for which the terrorist prefers to attack A over B if and only if the ratio of the value of B to the value of A is greater for the state than for the terrorist. When the state has incomplete information on the terroristâ€™s target values, the optimal security levels may be such that: a target is completely undefended (but attacked with positive probability); the probability of attack is greater at A than at B; and the expected damage from an attack is greater at A than at B. In total, the results reveal that the stateâ€™s choice of security is heavily influenced by the terroristâ€™s target valuations.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Peace Science Society (International) in its journal Conflict Management and Peace Science.
Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://pss.la.psu.edu/
applied game theory; counterterrorism; defensive measures; homeland security;
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