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Judgmental Errors, Interactive Norms, and the Difficulty of Detecting Strategic Surprises

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  • Joseph Lampel

    (University of Nottingham, Business School, Nottingham, United Kingdom, NG8 1AE)

  • Zur Shapira

    (Stern School of Business, New York University, 44 W. 4th Street, New York, New York 10012)

Abstract

The concept of strategic surprise has been used by writers on military strategy to explore the successful amplification of resources during battle. This paper applies the same concept to subcontracting relationships and develops a cognitive framework to explain the phenomenon of strategic surprises, using buyer-supplier relations as an example. We first examine the factors that produce vulnerability to strategic surprise in cooperative situations. Then, we explore the reasons why firms are caught by surprise in spite of their vigilance. We present a model representing false alarms and strategic surprises as judgmental errors. We argue that judgmental errors cause misinterpretation of evidence and a consequent sense of false security. Interactive norms, which exist in some industries and may be taken as proxies for enduring relationships, may increase the likelihood of misjudgment and strategic surprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Lampel & Zur Shapira, 2001. "Judgmental Errors, Interactive Norms, and the Difficulty of Detecting Strategic Surprises," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(5), pages 599-611, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ororsc:v:12:y:2001:i:5:p:599-611
    DOI: 10.1287/orsc.12.5.599.10094
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    Cited by:

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    2. Heugens, P.P.M.A.R. & Zyglidopoulos, S.C., 2007. "Unfit to Learn? How Long View Organizations Adapt to Environmental Jolts," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-014-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    3. Michael P. Haselhuhn & Devin G. Pope & Maurice E. Schweitzer & Peter Fishman, 2012. "The Impact of Personal Experience on Behavior: Evidence from Video-Rental Fines," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(1), pages 52-61, January.
    4. Tammy E. Beck & Donde Ashmos Plowman, 2009. "Experiencing Rare and Unusual Events Richly: The Role of Middle Managers in Animating and Guiding Organizational Interpretation," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(5), pages 909-924, October.
    5. Ronald Klingebiel & Arnoud De Meyer, 2013. "Becoming Aware of the Unknown: Decision Making During the Implementation of a Strategic Initiative," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 133-153, February.
    6. Feduzi, Alberto & Runde, Jochen, 2014. "Uncovering unknown unknowns: Towards a Baconian approach to management decision-making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 268-283.
    7. Joseph Porac & Zur Shapira, 2001. "On Mind, Environment, and Simon's Scissors of Rational Behavior," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 5(3), pages 206-212, September.
    8. Gabriel Natividad, 2013. "Financial Slack, Strategy, and Competition in Movie Distribution," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 846-864, June.
    9. Arman ESHRAGHI & TAKAHASHI Hidetomo & XU Peng, 2021. "Early-Life War Experiences and Corporate Financial Outcomes," Discussion papers 21081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. C. Gopinath, 2005. "Recognizing Decline: The Role of Triggers," American Journal of Business, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 21-27.
    11. Karen Chinander Dye & J. P. Eggers & Zur Shapira, 2014. "Trade-offs in a Tempest: Stakeholder Influence on Hurricane Evacuation Decisions," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(4), pages 1009-1025, August.
    12. Joseph Lampel & Jamal Shamsie & Zur Shapira, 2009. "Experiencing the Improbable: Rare Events and Organizational Learning," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(5), pages 835-845, October.
    13. Claus Rerup, 2009. "Attentional Triangulation: Learning from Unexpected Rare Crises," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(5), pages 876-893, October.
    14. Corrado Gatti, 2007. "Philip Bromiley, The Behavioral Foundations of Strategic Management," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 11(1), pages 105-109, March.
    15. Jan-Kees Schakel & Paul C. van Fenema & Samer Faraj, 2016. "Shots Fired! Switching Between Practices in Police Work," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 391-410, April.
    16. Miguel Pina e Cunha, 2003. "Time travelling: organisational foresight as temporal reflexity," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp426, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    17. Christian Geisler Asmussen & Marcus M. Larsen & Torben Pedersen, 2016. "Organizational Adaptation in Offshoring: The Relative Performance of Home- and Host-Based Learning Strategies," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 911-928, August.
    18. Joshi, Amol M. & Hemmatian, Iman, 2018. "How do legal surprises drive organizational attention and case resolution? An analysis of false patent marking lawsuits," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(9), pages 1741-1761.
    19. Stephanie Duchek, 2020. "Organizational resilience: a capability-based conceptualization," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(1), pages 215-246, April.

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