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What Calls to ARMs? International Evidence on Interest Rates and the Choice of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages

Author

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  • Cristian Badarinza

    (Department of Real Estate, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117566; Centre for Economic Policy Research, London EC1V 0DX; Institute of Real Estate Studies, Singapore 119613)

  • John Y. Campbell

    (Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138)

  • Tarun Ramadorai

    (Centre for Economic Policy Research, London EC1V 0DX; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138; Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ)

Abstract

The relative popularity of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) varies considerably both across countries and over time. We ask how movements in current and expected future interest rates affect the share of ARMs in total mortgage issuance. Using a nine-country panel and instrumental variables methods, we present evidence that near-term (one-year) rational forecasts of future movements in ARM rates do affect mortgage choice, particularly in more recent data since 2001. However, longer-term (three-year) rational forecasts of ARM rates have a relatively weak effect, and the current spread between FRM and ARM rates also matters, suggesting that households are concerned with current interest costs as well as with lifetime cost minimization. These conclusions are robust to alternative (adaptive and survey-based) models of household expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristian Badarinza & John Y. Campbell & Tarun Ramadorai, 2018. "What Calls to ARMs? International Evidence on Interest Rates and the Choice of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 2275-2288, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:64:y:2018:i:5:p:2275-2288
    DOI: mnsc.2016.2629
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gabriele Foà & Leonardo Gambacorta & Luigi Guiso & Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2019. "The Supply Side of Household Finance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(10), pages 3762-3798.
    3. Maj-Britt Nordfang & Mogens Steffensen, 2017. "Portfolio Optimization and Mortgage Choice," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, January.
    4. Valentina Michelangeli & José-Luis Peydró & Enrico Sette, 2020. "Credit Demand versus Supply Channels: Experimental- and Administrative-Based Evidence," Working Papers 1192, Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Koeniger, Winfried & Lennartz, Benedikt & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2022. "On the transmission of monetary policy to the housing market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Beltratti, Andrea & Benetton, Matteo & Gavazza, Alessandro, 2017. "The role of prepayment penalties in mortgage loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 165-179.
    7. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Afkhami, Mohamad, 2019. "Valuation of mortgage interest deductibility under uncertainty: An option pricing approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 102-122.
    8. Dungey, Mardi & Doko Tchatoka, Firmin & Yanotti, María B., 2018. "Endogeneity in household mortgage choice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 30-44.
    9. Matteo Benetton, 2017. "Lenders' Competition and Macro-prudential Regulation: A Model of the UK Mortgage Supermarket," 2017 Meeting Papers 1001, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Lukas, Moritz & Nöth, Markus, 2021. "Interest rate fixation periods and reference points," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    12. Badarinza, Cristian & Ramadorai, Tarun & Siljander, Juhana & Tripathy, Jagdish, 2024. "Behavioral lock-in: aggregate implications of reference dependence in the housing market," Bank of England working papers 1054, Bank of England.
    13. Koeniger, Winfried & Lennartz, Benedikt & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2022. "On the transmission of monetary policy to the housing market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Albertazzi, Ugo & Fringuellotti, Fulvia & Ongena, Steven, 2024. "Fixed rate versus adjustable rate mortgages: Evidence from euro area banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    15. Jing Jian Xiao & Chunsheng Tao, 2020. "Consumer finance/household finance: the definition and scope," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, June.
    16. Michael Richter, 2017. "Asymmetric Effects on Financial Cycles in a Monetary Union with Diverging Country Preferences for Variable- and Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 7, pages 19-36, February.
    17. Kim, Jiseob, 2020. "Macroeconomic effects of the mortgage refinance and the home equity lines of credit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Michelangeli, Valentina & Sette, Enrico & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Credit demand vs. supply channels: Experimental- and administrative-based evidence," EconStor Preprints 222282, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. Guiso, Luigi & Pozzi, Andrea & Tsoy, Anton & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2022. "The cost of steering in financial markets: Evidence from the mortgage market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1209-1226.
    20. Valentina Michelangeli & José-Luis Peydró & Enrico Sette, 2021. "Borrower versus Ban Channels in Lending: Experimental- and Administrative-Based Evidence," Working Papers 1307, Barcelona School of Economics.
    21. Ákos Aczél & Ádám Banai & András Borsos & Bálint Dancsik, 2016. "Identifying the determinants of housing loan margins in the Hungarian banking system," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 15(4), pages 5-44.
    22. Candian, Giacomo & Dmitriev, Mikhail, 2020. "Optimal contracts and supply-driven recessions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    23. Ryngaert, Jane M., 2022. "Inflation disasters and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 67-81.
    24. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Botsch, Matthew J., 2020. "The Long Shadows of the Great Inflation: Evidence from Residential Mortgages," CEPR Discussion Papers 14934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Michael Ehrmann & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2017. "Mortgage Choice in the Euro Area: Macroeconomic Determinants and the Effect of Monetary Policy on Debt Burdens," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 469-494, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage choice; adjustable rate; fixed rate; household finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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