IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/1724.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Számít-e a devizahiteles múlt?. A lakáshitelkamatok rögzítéséről szóló döntés vizsgálata mikroszintű adatokon
[Analysing the decision of fixing housing loan interest rates on micro-level data: does FX loan history matter?]

Author

Listed:
  • Dancsik, Bálint

Abstract

A tanulmányban azt vizsgáljuk, mi befolyásolja a háztartásokat abban a döntésükben, hogy a hosszabb időre rögzített kamatlábat vagy a változó kamatozást részesítik-e előnyben lakáshitel-felvételük során. Külön hangsúlyt fektetünk az adósok devizahitelekkel kapcsolatos korábbi tapasztalataira. A kérdést egy, a 2015 óta folyósított lakáshitelek adatait tartalmazó, mintegy 60 ezer ügyletet magában foglaló mintán probit modellel vizsgáljuk. Eredményeink azt mutatják, hogy a devizahiteleken elszenvedett árfolyamveszteség növeli annak valószínűségét, hogy az adós legalább öt évig rögzített kamatozású hitelt vesz fel. A devizahiteles múlton kívül növeli a kamatrögzítés valószínűségét az is, ha az ügyfélnek magasabb a jövedelme, illetve ha nagyobb a hitelösszeg-fedezetérték arány. Kevésbé valószínű viszont a kamatrögzítés, ha a hitel futamideje hosszabb, ha az ügyfélnek volt már korábban jelzáloghitele, ha a hitelfelvétel időpontjában magasabb a rögzített és változó kamatozású termékek közötti kamatkülönbözet, vagy ha a hitel folyósítása hitelközvetítő ügynökön keresztül történik.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: D14, G20, G21, R20.

Suggested Citation

  • Dancsik, Bálint, 2017. "Számít-e a devizahiteles múlt?. A lakáshitelkamatok rögzítéséről szóló döntés vizsgálata mikroszintű adatokon [Analysing the decision of fixing housing loan interest rates on micro-level data: does," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1030-1055.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1724
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2017.10.1030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=1724
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18414/KSZ.2017.10.1030?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dhillon, Upinder S & Shilling, James D & Sirmans, C F, 1987. "Choosing between Fixed and Adjustable Rate Mortgages: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(2), pages 260-267, May.
    2. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1449-1494.
    3. John Y. Campbell, 2013. "Mortgage Market Design," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-33.
    4. Bucks, Brian & Pence, Karen, 2008. "Do borrowers know their mortgage terms?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 218-233, September.
    5. Schepp, Zoltán & Szabó, Zoltán, 2015. "Lakossági svájcifrank-hitelek árazása - narratíván innen és túl? [Pricing Swiss franc-denominated mortgage loans: beyond the narratives]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1140-1157.
    6. Brahima Coulibaly & Geng Li, 2009. "Choice of Mortgage Contracts: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 659-673, December.
    7. David Leece, 2000. "Household Choice of Fixed Versus Floating Rate Debt: A Binomial Probit Model With Correction For Classification Error," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(1), pages 61-82, February.
    8. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Hemert, Otto Van & Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van, 2009. "Mortgage timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 292-324, August.
    9. Philomena M. Bacon & Peter G. Moffatt, 2012. "Mortgage Choice as a Natural Field Experiment on Choice under Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1401-1426, October.
    10. Masaki Mori & Julian Diaz III & Alan J. Ziobrowski, 2009. "Why Do Borrowers Choose Adjustable-Rate Mortgages over Fixed-Rate Mortgages? : A Behavioral Investigation," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 98-120.
    11. Andreas Fuster & James Vickery, 2015. "Securitization and the Fixed-Rate Mortgage," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 176-211.
    12. Ehrmann, Michael & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2014. "Household Risk Management and Actual Mortgage Choice in the Euro Area," MEA discussion paper series 201406, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    13. Király, Júlia & Nagy, Márton & Banai, Ádám, 2010. "Az aranykor vége Magyarországon. "Külföldi" és "lokális" bankok - válság előtt és válság után [End of the golden age in Hungary. "Foreign" and "local" banks ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 105-131.
    14. Simonovits, András & Király, Júlia, 2015. "Jelzáloghitel-törlesztés forintban és devizában - egyszerű modellek [Servicing mortgage loans in forints and in foreign currency: simple models]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 1-26.
    15. Anna, Petrenko, 2016. "Мaркування готової продукції як складова частина інформаційного забезпечення маркетингової діяльності підприємств овочепродуктового підкомплексу," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 2(1), March.
    16. James Vickery, 2007. "Interest rates and consumer choice in the residential mortgage market: a summary," Proceedings 1041, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Susan E. Woodward & Robert E. Hall, 2010. "Consumer Confusion in the Mortgage Market: Evidence of Less Than a Perfectly Transparent and Competitive Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 511-515, May.
    18. John Krainer, 2010. "Mortgage choice and the pricing of fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cristian Badarinza & John Y. Campbell & Tarun Ramadorai, 2018. "What Calls to ARMs? International Evidence on Interest Rates and the Choice of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 2275-2288, May.
    2. Dungey, Mardi & Doko Tchatoka, Firmin & Yanotti, María B., 2018. "Endogeneity in household mortgage choice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 30-44.
    3. Gene Amromin & Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Edward Zhong, 2018. "Complex Mortgages [Why don’t lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures, and securitization]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(6), pages 1975-2007.
    4. Ehrmann, Michael & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2014. "Household Risk Management and Actual Mortgage Choice in the Euro Area," MEA discussion paper series 201406, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    5. Yevgeny Mugerman & Moran Ofir & Zvi Wiener, 2016. "How Do Homeowners Choose Between Fixed and Adjustable Rate Mortgages?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Hancock, Diana & Passmore, Wayne, 2016. "Cost of funds indexed mortgage contracts with government-backed catastrophic insurance (COFI-Cats): A realistic alternative to the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 109-130.
    7. repec:mea:meawpa:14283 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Roman Sustek & Peter Rupert & Finn Kydland, 2012. "Housing Dynamics," 2012 Meeting Papers 315, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. John Y. Campbell, 2013. "Mortgage Market Design," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-33.
    10. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    11. Guiso, Luigi & Pozzi, Andrea & Tsoy, Anton & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2022. "The cost of steering in financial markets: Evidence from the mortgage market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1209-1226.
    12. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    13. M. Dietsch & C. Welter-Nicol, 2014. "Do LTV and DSTI caps make banks more resilient?," Débats économiques et financiers 13, Banque de France.
    14. Frederick T. Furlong & David Lang & Yelena Takhtamanova, 2014. "Mortgage Choice in the Housing Boom: Impacts of House Price Appreciation and Borrower Type," Working Paper Series 2014-5, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Ruben Cox & Dirk Brounen & Peter Neuteboom, 2015. "Financial Literacy, Risk Aversion and Choice of Mortgage Type by Households," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 74-112, January.
    16. Cóndor Richard, 2019. "Measuring the cost of U.S. housing policy," Working Papers 2019-08, Banco de México.
    17. Jan K. Brueckner & Kangoh Lee, 2014. "Optimal Risk-Sharing in Mortgage Contracts: The Effects of Potential Prepayment and Default," CESifo Working Paper Series 4979, CESifo.
    18. Albertazzi, Ugo & Fringuellotti, Fulvia & Ongena, Steven, 2024. "Fixed rate versus adjustable rate mortgages: Evidence from euro area banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    19. Philomena M. Bacon & Peter G. Moffatt, 2012. "Mortgage Choice as a Natural Field Experiment on Choice under Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1401-1426, October.
    20. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2017. "Mortgages and Monetary Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(10), pages 3337-3375.
    21. Kathleen W. Johnson & Geng Li, 2014. "Are Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Borrowers Borrowing Constrained?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 457-471, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1724. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.