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Priority Shifting and the Dynamics of Managing Eradicable Infectious Diseases

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  • Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens

    (Kids Risk Project, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts 02115; and Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands)

  • Kimberly M. Thompson

    (Kid Risk, Inc., Newton, Massachusetts 02459; and Kids Risk Project, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts 02115)

Abstract

Public health budget constraints force policy makers to prioritize resources toward those interventions that yield the highest perceived benefits. Intuitively, it appears optimal to focus resources on affordable interventions against prevalent diseases. However, due to the dynamics of infectious disease eradication, policies focusing on a static perception of priorities may lead to economically suboptimal outcomes. Using a hypothetical two-disease dynamic transmission model, we explore several different decision rules with respect to vaccination policy for eradicable diseases. The simulations show that cost-effectiveness decreases as the extent of priority shifting increases. This model suggests the need for a longer-term dynamic perspective to appropriately recognize costs and benefits of different policies for eradicable diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2009. "Priority Shifting and the Dynamics of Managing Eradicable Infectious Diseases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(4), pages 650-663, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:55:y:2009:i:4:p:650-663
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1080.0965
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    1. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2019. "Evaluation of Proactive and Reactive Strategies for Polio Eradication Activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 389-401, February.
    2. Li, Xiaoming, 2023. "A two-level policy for controlling an epidemic and its dynamics," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. van Ackere, Ann & Schulz, Peter J., 2020. "Explaining vaccination decisions: A system dynamics model of the interaction between epidemiological and behavioural factors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Steven G.F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi, 2015. "Polio Eradicators Use Integrated Analytical Models to Make Better Decisions," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 45(1), pages 5-25, February.
    5. Duijzer, Lotty Evertje & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2018. "Literature review: The vaccine supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 174-192.
    6. A. Sardi & E. Sorano, 2021. "Dynamic Performance Management: An Approach for Managing the Common Goods," Papers 2102.04090, arXiv.org.
    7. Arzi Adbi & Chirantan Chatterjee & Matej Drev & Anant Mishra, 2019. "When the Big One Came: A Natural Experiment on Demand Shock and Market Structure in India's Influenza Vaccine Markets," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 28(4), pages 810-832, April.
    8. Nidhee Jadeja & Nina J Zhu & Reda M Lebcir & Franco Sassi & Alison Holmes & Raheelah Ahmad, 2022. "Using system dynamics modelling to assess the economic efficiency of innovations in the public sector - a systematic review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Alberto Sardi & Enrico Sorano, 2019. "Dynamic Performance Management: An Approach for Managing the Common Goods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-22, November.
    10. Karl M Rich & Matthew J Denwood & Alistair W Stott & Dominic J Mellor & Stuart W J Reid & George J Gunn, 2013. "Systems Approaches to Animal Disease Surveillance and Resource Allocation: Methodological Frameworks for Behavioral Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-1, November.
    11. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 229-247, February.
    12. Martin F. G. Schaffernicht & Stefan N. Groesser, 2016. "A competence development framework for learning and teaching system dynamics," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 32(1), pages 52-81, January.
    13. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Modeling Poliovirus Risks and the Legacy of Polio Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 505-515, April.
    14. Linus Nyiwul, 2021. "Epidemic Control and Resource Allocation: Approaches and Implications for the Management of COVID-19," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 9(2), pages 283-305, December.
    15. Xuecheng Yin & İ. E. Büyüktahtakın, 2021. "A multi-stage stochastic programming approach to epidemic resource allocation with equity considerations," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 597-622, September.
    16. Kimberly M. Thompson & Mark A. Pallansch & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Steve G. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi, 2013. "Modeling Population Immunity to Support Efforts to End the Transmission of Live Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 647-663, April.
    17. Büyüktahtakın, İ. Esra & des-Bordes, Emmanuel & Kıbış, Eyyüb Y., 2018. "A new epidemics–logistics model: Insights into controlling the Ebola virus disease in West Africa," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(3), pages 1046-1063.
    18. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2018. "Using integrated modeling to support the global eradication of vaccine‐preventable diseases," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 78-120, January.
    19. Lu, Xuefei & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2023. "Global sensitivity analysis in epidemiological modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 9-24.
    20. Chih‐Tung Hsiao & Chun‐Cheng Chen & Lee‐Kai Lin & Chung‐Shu Liu, 2023. "A systems view of responding to the COVID‐19 pandemic: A causal loop model for Taiwan's approach," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 194-206, January.
    21. Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Richard C. Larson, 2018. "SD meets OR: a new synergy to address policy problems," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 327-353, January.
    22. Vincent de Gooyert, 2019. "Developing dynamic organizational theories; three system dynamics based research strategies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 653-666, March.
    23. Hosseini-Motlagh, Seyyed-Mahdi & Samani, Mohammad Reza Ghatreh & Homaei, Shamim, 2023. "Design of control strategies to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 pandemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 219-238.
    24. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2017. "Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective Part II," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(6), pages 1041-1051, June.

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