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Optimal disease eradication

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  • BARRETT, SCOTT
  • HOEL, MICHAEL

Abstract

Using a dynamic model of the control of an infectious disease, we derive the conditions under which eradication will be optimal. When eradication is feasible, the optimal program requires either a low vaccination rate or eradication. A high vaccination rate is never optimal. Under special conditions, the results are especially stark: the optimal policy is either not to vaccinate at all or to eradicate. Our analysis yields a cost–benefit rule for eradication, which we apply to the current initiative to eradicate polio.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrett, Scott & Hoel, Michael, 2007. "Optimal disease eradication," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 627-652, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:12:y:2007:i:05:p:627-652_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott Barrett, 2003. "Global Disease Eradication," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 591-600, 04/05.
    2. Francis, Peter J., 1997. "Dynamic epidemiology and the market for vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 383-406, February.
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    6. Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Philipson, Tomas, 1997. "Disease Eradication: Private versus Public Vaccination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 222-230, March.
    7. World Bank, 2003. "World Development Indicators 2003," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13920, December.
    8. Brito, Dagobert L. & Sheshinski, Eytan & Intriligator, Michael D., 1991. "Externalities and compulsary vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-90, June.
    9. Sutter, R.W. & Cochi, S.L., 1997. "Comment: ethical dilemmas in worldwide polio eradication programs," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(6), pages 913-916.
    10. Taylor, C.E. & Cutts, F. & Taylor, M.E., 1997. "Ethical dilemmas in current planning for polio eradication," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(6), pages 922-925.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle, 2021. "Optimal prevention and elimination of infectious diseases," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Bosi, Stefano & Camacho, Carmen & Desmarchelier, David, 2021. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Andrea Galeotti & Brian W. Rogers, 2013. "Strategic Immunization and Group Structure," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-32, May.
    4. Toxvaerd, Flavio & Rowthorn, Robert, 2022. "On the management of population immunity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    5. Stefano Bosi & Carmen Camacho & David Desmarchelier, 2020. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," PSE Working Papers halshs-02652165, HAL.
    6. repec:esx:essedp:707 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. van Ackere, Ann & Schulz, Peter J., 2020. "Explaining vaccination decisions: A system dynamics model of the interaction between epidemiological and behavioural factors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Toxvaerd, F. & Rowthorn, R., 2020. "On the Management of Population Immunity," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2080, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Scott Barrett, 2007. "The Smallpox Eradication Game," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 179-207, January.
    10. Martin F Quaas & Jasper N Meya & Hanna Schenk & Björn Bos & Moritz A Drupp & Till Requate, 2021. "The social cost of contacts: Theory and evidence for the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-29, March.
    11. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2010. "Infection, Acquired Immunity and Externalities in Treatment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Stéphane Mechoulan, 2007. "Market structure and communicable diseases," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 468-492, May.
    13. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2009. "Priority Shifting and the Dynamics of Managing Eradicable Infectious Diseases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(4), pages 650-663, April.
    14. Martin F. Quaas & Jasper N. Meya & Hanna Schenk & Björn Bos & Moritz A. Drupp & Till Requate, 2020. "The Social Cost of Contacts: Theory and Evidence for the Covid-19 Pandemic in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 8347, CESifo.
    15. Federico, Salvatore & Ferrari, Giorgio & Torrente, Maria-Laura, 2022. "Optimal Vaccination in a SIRS Epidemic Model," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 667, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    16. M. Ceddia, 2012. "Optimal Disease Eradication in Sympatric Metapopulations," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 499-530, August.
    17. Sharbayta, Sileshi Sintayehu & Buonomo, Bruno & d'Onofrio, Alberto & Abdi, Tadesse, 2022. "‘Period doubling’ induced by optimal control in a behavioral SIR epidemic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Fenichel, Eli P., 2013. "Economic considerations for social distancing and behavioral based policies during an epidemic," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 440-451.
    19. Eric Nævdal, 2012. "Fighting Transient Epidemics—Optimal Vaccination Schedules Before And After An Outbreak," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(12), pages 1456-1476, December.
    20. repec:esx:essedp:716 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Andrew Abel & Stavros Panageas, 2024. "Are Zero-Covid Policies Optimal?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 53, pages 47-70, July.
    22. Stefano Bosi & Carmen Camacho & David Desmarchelier, 2020. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," Working Papers halshs-02652165, HAL.
    23. Alejandro Caparrós & Michael Finus, 2020. "The Corona-Pandemic: A Game-Theoretic Perspective on Regional and Global Governance," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 913-927, August.
    24. Stefano Bosi & Carmen Camacho & David Desmarchelier, 2023. "On human capital accumulation in times of epidemic," PSE Working Papers halshs-04164371, HAL.

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    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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