Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Optimal Control of Drug Epidemics: Prevent and Treat---But Not at the Same Time?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Doris A. Behrens

    ()
    (Vienna University of Technology, Department of Operations Research and Systems Theory, Vienna, Austria, and Klagenfurt University, Department of Economics, Universitatssr. 65-67, A-9020 Klagenfurt, Austria)

  • Jonathan P. Caulkins

    ()
    (H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213-3890, and RAND, Drug Policy Research Center, Santa Monica, California)

  • Gernot Tragler

    ()
    (Vienna University of Technology, Department of Operations Research and Systems Theory, Vienna, Austria)

  • Gustav Feichtinger

    ()
    (Vienna University of Technology, Department of Operations Research and Systems Theory, Vienna, Austria)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Drug use and related problems change substantially over time, so it seems plausible that drug interventions should vary too. To investigate this possibility, we set up a continuous time version of the first-order difference equation model of cocaine use introduced by Everingham and Rydell (1994), extended to make initiation an endogenous function of prevalence. We then formulate and solve drug treatment and prevention spending decisions in the framework of dynamic optimal control under different assumptions about how freely drug control budgets can be manipulated. Insights include: (1) The effectiveness of prevention and treatment depend critically on the stage in the epidemic in which they are employed. Prevention is most appropriate when there are relatively few heavy users, e.g. in the beginning of an epidemic. Treatment is more effective later. (2) Hence, the optimal mix of interventions varies over time. (3) The transition period when it is optimal to use extensively both prevention and treatment is brief. (4) Total social costs increase dramatically if control is delayed.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.3.333.12068
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 46 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 3 (March)
    Pages: 333-347

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:46:y:2000:i:3:p:333-347

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA
    Phone: +1-443-757-3500
    Fax: 443-757-3515
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.informs.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: illicit drug use; demand control; nonlinear dynamic Systems; Hopf-bifurcations; optimal control; public policy;

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Behrens, Doris A. & Caulkins, Jonathan P. & Tragler, Gernot & Feichtinger, Gustav, 2002. "Why present-oriented societies undergo cycles of drug epidemics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 919-936, June.
    2. Rossi, Carla, 2004. "Operational models for epidemics of problematic drug use: the Mover-Stayer approach to heterogeneity," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 73-90, March.
    3. Kaya, C. Yalcin, 2004. "Time-optimal switching control for the US cocaine epidemic," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 57-72, March.
    4. Massin, Sophie, 2012. "Is harm reduction profitable? An analytical framework for corporate social responsibility based on an epidemic model of addictive consumption," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 74(12), pages 1856-1863.
    5. Kaplan, Edward H., 2008. "Adventures in policy modeling! Operations research in the community and beyond," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-9, February.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:46:y:2000:i:3:p:333-347. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.