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Dynamic compartmental model of trends in Australian drug use

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  • Jonathan Caulkins
  • Paul Dietze
  • Alison Ritter

Abstract

A five-state compartment model of trends in illicit drug use in Australia is parameterized using data from multiple sources. The model reproduces historical prevalence and supports what-if analyses under the assumption that past trajectories of drug escalation and desistance persist. For fixed initiation, the system has a unique stable equilibrium. The chief qualitative finding is that even though some users escalate rapidly, regular injection drug use still adjusts to changes in incidence with considerable inertia and delay. This has important policy implications, e.g., concerning the timing of reductions in drug-related social cost generated by interventions that reduce the social cost per injection user versus those that cut drug initiation. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Caulkins & Paul Dietze & Alison Ritter, 2007. "Dynamic compartmental model of trends in Australian drug use," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 151-162, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:hcarem:v:10:y:2007:i:2:p:151-162
    DOI: 10.1007/s10729-007-9012-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Doris A. Behrens & Jonathan P. Caulkins & Gernot Tragler & Gustav Feichtinger, 2000. "Optimal Control of Drug Epidemics: Prevent and Treat---But Not at the Same Time?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 333-347, March.
    3. Behrens, Doris A. & Caulkins, Jonathan P. & Tragler, Gernot & Feichtinger, Gustav, 2002. "Why present-oriented societies undergo cycles of drug epidemics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 919-936, June.
    4. Tammy O. Tengs & Sajjad Ahmad & Rebecca Moore & Eric Gage, 2004. "Federal policy mandating safer cigarettes: A hypothetical simulation of the anticipated population health gains or losses," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 857-872.
    5. C. Peter Rydell & Jonathan P. Caulkins & Susan S. Everingham, 1996. "Enforcement or Treatment? Modeling the Relative Efficacy of Alternatives for Controlling Cocaine," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(5), pages 687-695, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Caulkins, Jonathan P. & Feichtinger, Gustav & Tragler, Gernot & Wallner, Dagmar, 2010. "When in a drug epidemic should the policy objective switch from use reduction to harm reduction?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 308-318, February.
    2. Jennifer Gillespie & Sally McClean & Bryan Scotney & Lalit Garg & Maria Barton & Ken Fullerton, 2011. "Costing hospital resources for stroke patients using phase-type models," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 279-291, September.
    3. Wei Wang & Sifen Lu & Haoxiang Tang & Biao Wang & Caiping Sun & Pai Zheng & Yi Bai & Zuhong Lu & Yulin Kang, 2022. "A Scoping Review of Drug Epidemic Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-18, February.

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