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Dating currency crises with ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds: East Asia 1970-2002 [Dating currency crises]

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  • Jan P. A. M. Lestano

    (Department of Economics, University of Groningen, The Netherlands)

Abstract

Generally a currency crisis is defined to occur if an index of currency pressure exceeds a threshold. This paper compares currency crisis dating methods. For two definitions of currency pressure we contrast ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds. We illustrate the methods with data of six East Asian countries for the January 1970-December 2002 period, and evaluate the methods on the basis of the IMF chronology of the Asia crisis in 1997-1999. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 371-388

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:12:y:2007:i:4:p:371-388

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  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
  3. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
  4. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2005. "High-Frequency Contagion of Currency Crises in Asia ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 357-381, December.
  5. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Koedijk, C.G. & Schafgans, M.M.A. & Vries, C.G. de, 1990. "The tail index of exchange rate returns," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3108722, Tilburg University.
  9. Reza Siregar & Victor Pontines & Ramkishen Rajan,, 2004. "Extreme Value Theory and the Incidence of Currency Crises," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 181, Econometric Society.
  10. Ranil Salgado & Jahangir Aziz & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/67, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Lestano & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2004. "A comparison of currency crisis dating methods: East Asia 1970-2002," CCSO Working Papers 200412, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
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Cited by:
  1. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2011. "Identifying Extreme Values of Exchange Market Pressure," Carleton Economic Papers 11-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  2. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2012. "Episodes of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations and Reserves Accumulations in Selected Asian Economies: Is Fear of Appreciation Justified?," CAMA Working Papers 2012-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Choon-Seng Lim, Vincent & Nurulhuda Mohd. Hussain, 2014. "Stock Market Performance: Foretelling and Crisis Signalling?," Working Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number wp01.
  4. Megersa, Kelbesa & Cassimon, Danny, 2013. "Assessing Indicators of Currency Crisis in Ethiopia : Signals Approach," IOB Working Papers 2013.07, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy and Management (IOB).
  5. Zhongbo Jing & Jakob de Haan & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Haizhen Yang, 2013. "Identifying Banking Crises Using Money Market Pressure: New Evidence For A Large Set of Countries," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-41, CIRANO.
  6. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
  8. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
  9. Kuper, Gerard & Jacobs, Jan & Boonman, Tjeerd, 2013. "Sovereign debt crises in Latin America: A market pressure approach," Research Report 13016-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

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