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Dating currency crises with ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds: East Asia 1970-2002 [Dating currency crises]

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Author Info

  • Jan P. A. M. Lestano

    (Department of Economics, University of Groningen, The Netherlands)

Abstract

Generally a currency crisis is defined to occur if an index of currency pressure exceeds a threshold. This paper compares currency crisis dating methods. For two definitions of currency pressure we contrast ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds. We illustrate the methods with data of six East Asian countries for the January 1970-December 2002 period, and evaluate the methods on the basis of the IMF chronology of the Asia crisis in 1997-1999. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.316
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 371-388

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:12:y:2007:i:4:p:371-388

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Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/

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References

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  1. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and trade: why are currency crises regional?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2005. "High-Frequency Contagion of Currency Crises in Asia ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 357-381, December.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Koedijk, C.G. & Schafgans, M.M.A. & Vries, C.G. de, 1990. "The tail index of exchange rate returns," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3108722, Tilburg University.
  5. Lestano & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2004. "A comparison of currency crisis dating methods: East Asia 1970-2002," CCSO Working Papers 200412, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
  6. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
  7. Reza Siregar & Victor Pontines & Ramkishen Rajan,, 2004. "Extreme Value Theory and the Incidence of Currency Crises," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 181, Econometric Society.
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  9. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Ranil Salgado & Jahangir Aziz & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/67, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Megersa, kelbesa & Cassimon, Danny, 2013. "Assessing Indicators of Currency Crisis in Ethiopia: Signals Approach," MPRA Paper 47151, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Zhongbo Jing & Jakob de Haan & Jan Jacobs & Haizhen Yang, 2013. "Identifying Banking Crises Using Money Market Pressure: New Evidence For a Large Set of Countries," DNB Working Papers 397, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Kuper, Gerard & Jacobs, Jan & Boonman, Tjeerd, 2013. "Sovereign debt crises in Latin America: A market pressure approach," Research Report 13016-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  4. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2011. "Identifying Extreme Values of Exchange Market Pressure," Carleton Economic Papers 11-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  5. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  6. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
  7. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2012. "Episodes of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations and Reserves Accumulations in Selected Asian Economies: Is Fear of Appreciation Justified?," CAMA Working Papers 2012-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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