IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hin/complx/9434608.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal Payments to Connected Depositors in Turbulent Times: A Markov Chain Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Dávid Csercsik
  • Hubert János Kiss

Abstract

We propose a discrete time probabilistic model of depositor behavior which takes into account the information flow among depositors. In each time period each depositors’ current state is determined in a stochastic way, based on their previous state, the state of other connected depositors, and the strategy of the bank. The bank offers payment to impatient depositors (those who want to withdraw their funds) who accept or decline them with certain probability, depending on the offered amount. Our principal aim is to see what are the optimal offers of the bank if it wants to keep the expected chance of a bank run under a certain level and minimize its expected payments, while taking into account the connection structure of the depositors. We show that in the case of the proposed model this question results in a nonlinear optimization problem with nonlinear constraints and that the method is capable of accounting for time-varying resource limits of the bank. Optimal offers increase (a) in the degree of the depositor, (b) in the probability of being hit by a liquidity shock, and (c) in the effect of a neighboring impatient depositor.

Suggested Citation

  • Dávid Csercsik & Hubert János Kiss, 2018. "Optimal Payments to Connected Depositors in Turbulent Times: A Markov Chain Approach," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-14, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:complx:9434608
    DOI: 10.1155/2018/9434608
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2018/9434608.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2018/9434608.xml
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2018/9434608?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Green, Edward J. & Lin, Ping, 2003. "Implementing efficient allocations in a model of financial intermediation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Rajkamal Iyer & Manju Puri, 2012. "Understanding Bank Runs: The Importance of Depositor-Bank Relationships and Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1414-1445, June.
    3. Kiss, Hubert Janos & Rodriguez-Lara, Ismael & Rosa-García, Alfonso, 2014. "Do social networks prevent or promote bank runs?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 87-99.
    4. Huberto M. Ennis & Todd Keister, 2009. "Bank Runs and Institutions: The Perils of Intervention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1588-1607, September.
    5. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    6. Temzelides, Theodosios, 1997. "Evolution, coordination, and banking panics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 163-183, September.
    7. Hubert Janos Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez-Lara & Alfonso Rosa-GarcÂa, 2012. "On the Effects of Deposit Insurance and Observability on Bank Runs: An Experimental Study," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1651-1665, December.
    8. Cormac O Grada & Morgan Kelly, 2000. "Market Contagion: Evidence from the Panics of 1854 and 1857," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1110-1124, December.
    9. Garratt, Rod & Keister, Todd, 2009. "Bank runs as coordination failures: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 300-317, August.
    10. Martha A. Starr & Rasim Yilmaz, 2007. "Bank Runs in Emerging-Market Economies: Evidence from Turkey's Special Finance Houses," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(4), pages 1112-1132, April.
    11. Schotter, Andrew & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2009. "On the dynamics and severity of bank runs: An experimental study," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 217-241, April.
    12. Nikolaos Demiris & Theodore Kypraios & L. Vanessa Smith, 2014. "On the epidemic of financial crises," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 177(3), pages 697-723, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kinateder, Markus & Kiss, Hubert János, 2014. "Sequential decisions in the Diamond–Dybvig banking model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 149-160.
    2. Kiss, Hubert J. & Rodriguez-Lara, Ismael & Rosa-Garcia, Alfonso, 2022. "Preventing (panic) bank runs," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    3. Markus Kinateder & Hubert János Kiss & Ágnes Pintér, 2020. "Would depositors pay to show that they do not withdraw? Theory and experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(3), pages 873-894, September.
    4. Shakina, Ekaterina & Angerer, Martin, 2018. "Coordination and communication during bank runs," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 115-130.
    5. Kiss, Hubert János & Rodriguez-Lara, Ismael & Rosa-Garcia, Alfonso, 2022. "Who withdraws first? Line formation during bank runs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Kiss, Hubert J. & Rodriguez-Lara, Ismael & Rosa-Garcia, Alfonso, 2014. "Do women panic more than men? An experimental study of financial decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 40-51.
    7. Martin Dufwenberg, 2014. "Banking on Experiments?," Working Papers 534, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    8. Hubert J. Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez-Lara & Alfonso Rosa-Garcia, 2022. "Experimental bank runs," Chapters, in: Sascha Füllbrunn & Ernan Haruvy (ed.), Handbook of Experimental Finance, chapter 25, pages 347-361, Edward Elgar Publishing.
      • Hubert J. Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez-Lara & Alfonso Rosa-Garcia, 2021. "Experimental Bank Runs," ThE Papers 21/03, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    9. Gergely Horváth & Hubert János Kiss, 2016. "Correlated Observations, the Law of Small Numbers and Bank Runs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-29, April.
    10. Markus Kinateder & Hubert Janos Kiss & Agnes Pinter, 2015. "Would depositors like to show others that they do not withdraw? Theory and Experiment," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1553, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    11. Atmaca, Sümeyra & Schoors, Koen & Verschelde, Marijn, 2020. "Bank loyalty, social networks and crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    12. Hubert Janos Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez-Lara & Alfonso Rosa-Garcia, 2018. "Who runs first to the bank?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1826, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    13. Alfonso Rosa García & Hubert Janos Kiss & Ismael Rodríguez Lara, 2009. "Do social networks prevent bank runs?," Working Papers. Serie AD 2009-25, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    14. Kiss, H.J. & Rodriguez-Lara, I. & Rosa-García, A., 2016. "Think twice before running! Bank runs and cognitive abilities," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 12-19.
    15. Kiss, Hubert Janos & Rodriguez-Lara, Ismael & Rosa-García, Alfonso, 2014. "Do social networks prevent or promote bank runs?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 87-99.
    16. Hubert Janos Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez‐Lara & Alfonso Rosa‐García, 2012. "On the Effects of Deposit Insurance and Observability on Bank Runs: An Experimental Study," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1651-1665, December.
    17. König-Kersting, Christian & Trautmann, Stefan T. & Vlahu, Razvan, 2022. "Bank instability: Interbank linkages and the role of disclosure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Toni Ricardo Eugenio dos Santos & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2021. "Dynamic bank runs: an agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(3), pages 675-703, July.
    19. Jan Libich & Dat Thanh Nguyen & Hubert Janos Kiss, 2023. "Running Out of Bank Runs," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 64(1), pages 1-39, August.
    20. Kiss, Hubert J. & Rodriguez-Lara, Ismael & Rosa-Garcia, Alfonso, 2018. "Panic bank runs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 146-149.
      • Hubert Janos Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez-Lara & Alfonso Rosa-Garcia, 2017. "Panic bank runs," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1710, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hin:complx:9434608. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mohamed Abdelhakeem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.hindawi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.