IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i9p5088-d547583.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Spatial and Temporal Decomposition of the Effect of Floods on Single-Family House Prices: A Laval, Canada Case Study

Author

Listed:
  • Maha AbdelHalim

    (INRS, Centre Urbanisation, Culture et Société (UCS), Montréal, QC H2X 1E3, Canada)

  • Jean Dubé

    (École Supérieure d’aménagement du Territoire et de Développement Régional (ESAD), Université Laval, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada)

  • Nicolas Devaux

    (Département Sociétés, Territoires et Développement, Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQÀR), Rimouski, QC G5L 3A1, Canada)

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate and decompose the spatial and temporal effect of a flood event occurring in the city of Laval in 1998 using a hedonic pricing model (HPM) based on a difference-in-differences (DID) estimator. The empirical investigation of the impact of flood as a natural disaster must take into account the fact that the negotiation process between buyers and sellers may well occur before the event. It is argued that the evaluation procedure needs to be adjusted to account for this reality because the estimation of the effects may otherwise be biased and isolate other effects. To test this hypothesis, the study focuses on transactions occurring between (1995 and 2001) and within designated floodplains to adequately isolate and decompose the impact of flood. The original database contains information on 252 single-family houses transactions. The results suggest that the estimation of the impact is time dependent, with a measured negative effect appearing several months after the flood, suggesting that the impact is hard to establish right after the event since transactions, and the final sale price, could have been fixed by negotiations well before the event. The statistical methodological framework of flood research should be adapted to account for the negotiation process occurring prior to the flood event to be able to correctly isolate the impact for the after event. The flooded area also needs to be precisely identified to be able to correctly estimate the flood impact on houses that have faced flood.

Suggested Citation

  • Maha AbdelHalim & Jean Dubé & Nicolas Devaux, 2021. "The Spatial and Temporal Decomposition of the Effect of Floods on Single-Family House Prices: A Laval, Canada Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:9:p:5088-:d:547583
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/9/5088/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/9/5088/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alicia N. Rambaldi & Cameron S. Fletcher & Kerry Collins & Ryan R.J. McAllister, 2013. "Housing Shadow Prices in an Inundation-prone Suburb," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(9), pages 1889-1905, July.
    2. Philippe Belanger & Michael Bourdeau-Brien, 2018. "The impact of flood risk on the price of residential properties: the case of England," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 876-901, August.
    3. Daniel, Vanessa E. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M. & Rietveld, Piet, 2009. "Flooding risk and housing values: An economic assessment of environmental hazard," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 355-365, December.
    4. Erik T. Verhoef & Peter Nijkamp, 2003. "Externalities in the Urban Economy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-078/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Pilgram, Clemens A. & West, Sarah E., 2018. "Fading premiums: The effect of light rail on residential property values in Minneapolis, Minnesota," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-10.
    6. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
    7. Jean Dubé & Maha AbdelHalim & Nicolas Devaux, 2021. "Evaluating the Impact of Floods on Housing Price Using a Spatial Matching Difference-In-Differences (SM-DID) Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1, January.
    8. Dylan E McNamara & Sathya Gopalakrishnan & Martin D Smith & A Brad Murray, 2015. "Climate Adaptation and Policy-Induced Inflation of Coastal Property Value," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-12, March.
    9. Jean Dub� & Di�go Legros, 2014. "Spatial econometrics and the hedonic pricing model: what about the temporal dimension?," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 333-359, December.
    10. Miyuki Hino & Marshall Burke, 2020. "Does Information About Climate Risk Affect Property Values?," NBER Working Papers 26807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Luechinger, Simon & Raschky, Paul A., 2009. "Valuing flood disasters using the life satisfaction approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 620-633, April.
    12. Speyrer, Janet Furman & Ragas, Wade R, 1991. "Housing Prices and Flood Risk: An Examination Using Spline Regression," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 395-407, December.
    13. Randall S. Guttery & Stephen L. Poe & C. F. Sirmans, 2004. "An Empirical Investigation of Federal Wetlands Regulation and Flood Delineation: Implications for Residential Property Owners," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(3), pages 229-316.
    14. David M. Harrison & Greg T. Smersh & Arthur L. Schwartz, Jr, 2001. "Environmental Determinants of Housing Prices: The Impact of Flood Zone Status," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 21(1/2), pages 3-20.
    15. Dubé, Jean & Legros, Diègo & Thériault, Marius & Des Rosiers, François, 2014. "A spatial Difference-in-Differences estimator to evaluate the effect of change in public mass transit systems on house prices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 24-40.
    16. Jean Dubé & Diègo Legros, 2016. "A Spatiotemporal Solution for the Simultaneous Sale Price and Time-on-the-Market Problem," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 44(4), pages 846-877, October.
    17. James R. Meldrum, 2016. "Floodplain Price Impacts by Property Type in Boulder County, Colorado: Condominiums Versus Standalone Properties," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(4), pages 725-750, August.
    18. Dubé, Jean & Thériault, Marius & Des Rosiers, François, 2013. "Commuter rail accessibility and house values: The case of the Montreal South Shore, Canada, 1992–2009," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 49-66.
    19. Bernstein, Asaf & Gustafson, Matthew T. & Lewis, Ryan, 2019. "Disaster on the horizon: The price effect of sea level rise," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 253-272.
    20. Hallstrom, Daniel G. & Smith, V. Kerry, 2005. "Market responses to hurricanes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 541-561, November.
    21. Cropper, Maureen L & Deck, Leland B & McConnell, Kenneth E, 1988. "On the Choice of Functional Form for Hedonic Price Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 668-675, November.
    22. Ajita Atreya & Susana Ferreira & Warren Kriesel, 2013. "Forgetting the Flood? An Analysis of the Flood Risk Discount over Time," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 577-596.
    23. Beltrán, Allan & Maddison, David & Elliott, Robert J R, 2018. "Is Flood Risk Capitalised Into Property Values?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 668-685.
    24. Carolyn Kousky, 2010. "Learning from Extreme Events: Risk Perceptions after the Flood," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(3).
    25. Bin, Okmyung, 2004. "A prediction comparison of housing sales prices by parametric versus semi-parametric regressions," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 68-84, March.
    26. Gabor Bekes & Aron Horvath & Zoltan Sapi, 2016. "Flood risk and housing prices: evidence from Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1620, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    27. Devaux, Nicolas & Dubé, Jean & Apparicio, Philippe, 2017. "Anticipation and post-construction impact of a metro extension on residential values: The case of Laval (Canada), 1995–2013," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 8-19.
    28. Ajita Atreya & Susana Ferreira, 2015. "Seeing is Believing? Evidence from Property Prices in Inundated Areas," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(5), pages 828-848, May.
    29. Kenneth A. Small & Seiji S.C. Steimetz, 2012. "Spatial Hedonics And The Willingness To Pay For Residential Amenities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 635-647, October.
    30. Dundas, Steven J., 2017. "Benefits and ancillary costs of natural infrastructure: Evidence from the New Jersey coast," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 62-80.
    31. Okmyung Biny & Stephen Polasky, 2004. "Effects of Flood Hazards on Property Values: Evidence Before and After Hurricane Floyd," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(4).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jie Wang & Biyu Peng & Xiaohua Xia & Zhu Ma, 2021. "Are Housing Prices Sustainable in 35 Large and Medium-Sized Chinese Cities? A Study Based on the Cheap Talk Game and Dynamic GMM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beltrán, Allan & Maddison, David & Elliott, Robert, 2019. "The impact of flooding on property prices: A repeat-sales approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 62-86.
    2. Mutlu, Asli & Roy, Debraj & Filatova, Tatiana, 2023. "Capitalized value of evolving flood risks discount and nature-based solution premiums on property prices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Netusil, Noelwah R. & Moeltner, Klaus & Jarrad, Maya, 2019. "Floodplain designation and property sale prices in an urban watershed," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Justin Contat & Caroline Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2023. "When Climate Meets Real Estate: A Survey of the Literature," FHFA Staff Working Papers 23-05, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    5. Georgic, Will & Klaiber, H. Allen, 2022. "Stocks, flows, and flood insurance: A nationwide analysis of the capitalized impact of annual premium discounts on housing values," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Meri Davlasheridze & Qin Fan, 2019. "Valuing Seawall Protection in the Wake of Hurricane Ike," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 257-279, October.
    7. Yun Qiu & Sathya Gopalakrishnan & H. Allen Klaiber & Xiaoyu Li, 2020. "Dredging the sand commons: the economic and geophysical drivers of beach nourishment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 363-383, September.
    8. Allan Beltrán & David Maddison & Robert J. R. Elliott, 2018. "Assessing the Economic Benefits of Flood Defenses: A Repeat‐Sales Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2340-2367, November.
    9. Laura A. Bakkensen & Xiaozhou Ding & Lala Ma, 2019. "Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(4), pages 1132-1158, April.
    10. James R. Meldrum, 2016. "Floodplain Price Impacts by Property Type in Boulder County, Colorado: Condominiums Versus Standalone Properties," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(4), pages 725-750, August.
    11. Matthew Gibson & Jamie T. Mullins & Alison Hill, 2019. "Climate Risk and Beliefs: Evidence from New York Floodplains," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    12. Qiu, Yun & Gopalakrishnan, Sathya, 2018. "Shoreline defense against climate change and capitalized impact of beach nourishment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 134-147.
    13. Garbarino, Nicola & Guin, Benjamin & Lee, Jonathan, 2022. "The Effects of Subsidized Flood Insurance on Real Estate Markets," Bank of England working papers 995, Bank of England.
    14. Coulson, N. Edward & McCoy, Shawn J. & McDonough, Ian K., 2020. "Economic diversification and the resiliency hypothesis: Evidence from the impact of natural disasters on regional housing values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Abbie A. Rogers & Fiona L. Dempster & Jacob I. Hawkins & Robert J. Johnston & Peter C. Boxall & John Rolfe & Marit E. Kragt & Michael P. Burton & David J. Pannell, 2019. "Valuing non-market economic impacts from natural hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 1131-1161, November.
    16. David Wolf & Kenji Takeuchi, 2022. "Who Gives a Dam? Capitalization of Flood Protection in Fukuoka, Japan," Discussion Papers 2203, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    17. Graff Zivin, Joshua & Liao, Yanjun & Panassié, Yann, 2023. "How hurricanes sweep up housing markets: Evidence from Florida," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    18. Eunah Jung & Heeyeun Yoon, 2018. "Is Flood Risk Capitalized into Real Estate Market Value? A Mahalanobis-Metric Matching Approach to the Housing Market in Gyeonggi, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.
    19. Pei-Ing Wu & Yi Chen & Je-Liang Liou, 2021. "Housing property along riverbanks in Taipei, Taiwan: a spatial quantile modelling of landscape benefits and flooding losses," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 2404-2438, February.
    20. Pollack, Adam B. & Kaufmann, Robert K., 2022. "Increasing storm risk, structural defense, and house prices in the Florida Keys," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:9:p:5088-:d:547583. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.