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Does Information About Climate Risk Affect Property Values?

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  • Miyuki Hino
  • Marshall Burke

Abstract

Floods and other climate hazards pose a widespread and growing threat to housing and infrastructure around the world. By incorporating climate risk into asset prices, markets can discourage excessive development in hazardous areas. However, the extent to which markets actually price these risks remains poorly understood. Here we measure the effect of information about flood risk on residential property values in the United States. Using multiple empirical approaches and two decades of sales data covering the universe of homes in the US, we find little evidence that housing markets fully price information about flood risk in aggregate. However, the price penalty for flood risk is larger for commercial buyers and in states where sellers must disclose information about flood risk to potential buyers, suggesting that policies to improve risk communication could influence market outcomes. Our findings indicate that floodplain homes in the US are currently overvalued by a total of $34B, raising concerns about the stability of real estate markets as climate risks become more salient and severe.

Suggested Citation

  • Miyuki Hino & Marshall Burke, 2020. "Does Information About Climate Risk Affect Property Values?," NBER Working Papers 26807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26807
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    Cited by:

    1. Jia, Ruixue & , & Xie, Victoria, 2022. "Expecting Floods: Firm Entry, Employment, and Aggregate Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 17462, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Aguilar-Gomez, Sandra & Gutierrez, Emilio & Heres, David & Jaume, David & Tobal, Martin, 2024. "Thermal stress and financial distress: Extreme temperatures and firms’ loan defaults in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Justin Tyndall, 2023. "Sea Level Rise and Home Prices: Evidence from Long Island," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 579-605, November.
    4. Lu Fang & Lingxiao Li & Abdullah Yavas, 2023. "The Impact of Distant Hurricane on Local Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 327-372, February.
    5. Tom Gillespie & Ronan C. Lyons & Thomas K. J. McDermott, 2020. "Information Matters: Evidence from flood risk in the Irish housing market," Trinity Economics Papers tep1620, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    6. Yoshiyasu Koide & Kenji Nishizaki & Nao Sudo, 2022. "Flood Risk Perception and its Impact on Land Prices in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    7. Alexandra Lefevre & Agnes Tourin, 2023. "Incorporating Climate Risk into Credit Risk Modeling: An Application in Housing Finance," FinTech, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-27, September.
    8. Yasmine van der Straten, 2023. "Flooded House or Underwater Mortgage? The Implications of Climate Change and Adaptation on Housing, Income & Wealth," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-014/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Interact with the Financial System? A Survey," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    10. Celso Brunetti & John Caramichael & Matteo Crosignani & Benjamin Dennis & Gurubala Kotta & Donald P. Morgan & Chaehee Shin & Ilknur Zer, 2022. "Climate-related Financial Stability Risks for the United States: Methods and Applications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-043, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Paul M. Lohmann & Andreas Kontoleon, 2023. "Do Flood and Heatwave Experiences Shape Climate Opinion? Causal Evidence from Flooding and Heatwaves in England and Wales," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(1), pages 263-304, October.
    12. Pollack, Adam B. & Kaufmann, Robert K., 2022. "Increasing storm risk, structural defense, and house prices in the Florida Keys," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    13. Paolo Avner & Vincent Viguié & Bramka Arga Jafino & Stephane Hallegatte, 2022. "Flood Protection and Land Value Creation – Not all Resilience Investments Are Created Equal," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 417-449, November.
    14. Maha AbdelHalim & Jean Dubé & Nicolas Devaux, 2021. "The Spatial and Temporal Decomposition of the Effect of Floods on Single-Family House Prices: A Laval, Canada Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, May.
    15. Jose J. Canals-Cerda & Raluca Roman, 2021. "Climate Change and Consumer Finance: A Very Brief Literature Review," Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers 21-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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